**Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, while the lone Republican entrant received negligible support as a write-in.** California's 12th district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains strong Democratic voter registration advantages and a consistent history of large margins for Democratic candidates in federal races. With no Republican on the November 3 general-election ballot, the outcome is structurally limited to a Democratic victor. Traders price this near-certainty into the 95.5% Democratic consensus, reflecting the district's partisan baseline and the absence of any competitive cross-party challenge. The slim Republican share accounts for residual uncertainty around turnout anomalies or unforeseen disqualifications, though such shifts lack precedent in this seat.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$42,409 Vol.
$42,409 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$42,409 Vol.
$42,409 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,522 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$16,887 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, while the lone Republican entrant received negligible support as a write-in.** California's 12th district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains strong Democratic voter registration advantages and a consistent history of large margins for Democratic candidates in federal races. With no Republican on the November 3 general-election ballot, the outcome is structurally limited to a Democratic victor. Traders price this near-certainty into the 95.5% Democratic consensus, reflecting the district's partisan baseline and the absence of any competitive cross-party challenge. The slim Republican share accounts for residual uncertainty around turnout anomalies or unforeseen disqualifications, though such shifts lack precedent in this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$42,409Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, while the lone Republican entrant received negligible support as a write-in.** California's 12th district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains strong Democratic voter registration advantages and a consistent history of large margins for Democratic candidates in federal races. With no Republican on the November 3 general-election ballot, the outcome is structurally limited to a Democratic victor. Traders price this near-certainty into the 95.5% Democratic consensus, reflecting the district's partisan baseline and the absence of any competitive cross-party challenge. The slim Republican share accounts for residual uncertainty around turnout anomalies or unforeseen disqualifications, though such shifts lack precedent in this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,409Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, while the lone Republican entrant received negligible support as a write-in.** California's 12th district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains strong Democratic voter registration advantages and a consistent history of large margins for Democratic candidates in federal races. With no Republican on the November 3 general-election ballot, the outcome is structurally limited to a Democratic victor. Traders price this near-certainty into the 95.5% Democratic consensus, reflecting the district's partisan baseline and the absence of any competitive cross-party challenge. The slim Republican share accounts for residual uncertainty around turnout anomalies or unforeseen disqualifications, though such shifts lack precedent in this seat.
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