California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic advantage driven by voter registration patterns exceeding 60 percent in the party and consistent historical margins in San Francisco County. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces primary opposition on the June 2, 2026 ballot but enters the November general election with minimal Republican presence, consistent with the district's structural leanings. Trader consensus reflects this established baseline, where comparable safe seats have rarely shifted absent major disruptions. Scenarios that could alter positioning include an unexpected candidate withdrawal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late legal developments affecting ballot access, though such factors have limited precedent in altering outcomes for similarly situated districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-12 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-12 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
5%
$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$23,142 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,212 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic advantage driven by voter registration patterns exceeding 60 percent in the party and consistent historical margins in San Francisco County. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces primary opposition on the June 2, 2026 ballot but enters the November general election with minimal Republican presence, consistent with the district's structural leanings. Trader consensus reflects this established baseline, where comparable safe seats have rarely shifted absent major disruptions. Scenarios that could alter positioning include an unexpected candidate withdrawal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late legal developments affecting ballot access, though such factors have limited precedent in altering outcomes for similarly situated districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$37,355Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic advantage driven by voter registration patterns exceeding 60 percent in the party and consistent historical margins in San Francisco County. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces primary opposition on the June 2, 2026 ballot but enters the November general election with minimal Republican presence, consistent with the district's structural leanings. Trader consensus reflects this established baseline, where comparable safe seats have rarely shifted absent major disruptions. Scenarios that could alter positioning include an unexpected candidate withdrawal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late legal developments affecting ballot access, though such factors have limited precedent in altering outcomes for similarly situated districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$37,355Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic advantage driven by voter registration patterns exceeding 60 percent in the party and consistent historical margins in San Francisco County. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces primary opposition on the June 2, 2026 ballot but enters the November general election with minimal Republican presence, consistent with the district's structural leanings. Trader consensus reflects this established baseline, where comparable safe seats have rarely shifted absent major disruptions. Scenarios that could alter positioning include an unexpected candidate withdrawal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late legal developments affecting ballot access, though such factors have limited precedent in altering outcomes for similarly situated districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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