The Republican Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the PA-14 House election due to the district’s R+17 partisan voter index and the strong reelection record of incumbent Guy Reschenthaler, who secured over 66% in 2024. Recent nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting consistent voter patterns in southwest Pennsylvania. The May 19 Democratic primary produced nominee Alan Bradstock without altering the underlying dynamics. Trader consensus prices in the low single digits for Democrats acknowledge the structural barriers, though late-cycle national shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before the November 3 general election remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPA-14 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
PA-14 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$388 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$1,239 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the PA-14 House election due to the district’s R+17 partisan voter index and the strong reelection record of incumbent Guy Reschenthaler, who secured over 66% in 2024. Recent nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting consistent voter patterns in southwest Pennsylvania. The May 19 Democratic primary produced nominee Alan Bradstock without altering the underlying dynamics. Trader consensus prices in the low single digits for Democrats acknowledge the structural barriers, though late-cycle national shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before the November 3 general election remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$1,627Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the PA-14 House election due to the district’s R+17 partisan voter index and the strong reelection record of incumbent Guy Reschenthaler, who secured over 66% in 2024. Recent nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting consistent voter patterns in southwest Pennsylvania. The May 19 Democratic primary produced nominee Alan Bradstock without altering the underlying dynamics. Trader consensus prices in the low single digits for Democrats acknowledge the structural barriers, though late-cycle national shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before the November 3 general election remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,627Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the PA-14 House election due to the district’s R+17 partisan voter index and the strong reelection record of incumbent Guy Reschenthaler, who secured over 66% in 2024. Recent nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting consistent voter patterns in southwest Pennsylvania. The May 19 Democratic primary produced nominee Alan Bradstock without altering the underlying dynamics. Trader consensus prices in the low single digits for Democrats acknowledge the structural barriers, though late-cycle national shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before the November 3 general election remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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