Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both from the same party, advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district after Republican candidates split the remaining vote and failed to reach the November general election ballot. The district's partisan lean, reflected in consistent solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, combined with this intra-party matchup, has produced the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the outcome hinges on which Democrat prevails among voters in the Napa-Sonoma wine country and surrounding areas. A Republican victory would require an unforeseen development such as a candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or court intervention altering the ballot, none of which appear probable based on the established field and timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,915 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$7,806 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both from the same party, advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district after Republican candidates split the remaining vote and failed to reach the November general election ballot. The district's partisan lean, reflected in consistent solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, combined with this intra-party matchup, has produced the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the outcome hinges on which Democrat prevails among voters in the Napa-Sonoma wine country and surrounding areas. A Republican victory would require an unforeseen development such as a candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or court intervention altering the ballot, none of which appear probable based on the established field and timeline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$13,721End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both from the same party, advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district after Republican candidates split the remaining vote and failed to reach the November general election ballot. The district's partisan lean, reflected in consistent solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, combined with this intra-party matchup, has produced the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the outcome hinges on which Democrat prevails among voters in the Napa-Sonoma wine country and surrounding areas. A Republican victory would require an unforeseen development such as a candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or court intervention altering the ballot, none of which appear probable based on the established field and timeline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,721End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both from the same party, advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district after Republican candidates split the remaining vote and failed to reach the November general election ballot. The district's partisan lean, reflected in consistent solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, combined with this intra-party matchup, has produced the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the outcome hinges on which Democrat prevails among voters in the Napa-Sonoma wine country and surrounding areas. A Republican victory would require an unforeseen development such as a candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or court intervention altering the ballot, none of which appear probable based on the established field and timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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