The Democratic nominee holds a commanding lead in the CA-04 House race due to the district's established partisan composition, reflected in consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and nonpartisan forecaster ratings classifying it as solidly Democratic. Incumbent Mike Thompson, first elected in 1999 and seeking another term as a moderate member of the Blue Dog Coalition, benefits from name recognition and prior general-election margins exceeding 30 points. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary and subsequent November general election occur under newly approved district lines following 2025 redistricting. A Republican victory would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a major national political shift capable of overcoming the seat's structural Democratic advantage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
92%
Республиканская партия
7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$791 Объем
92%
Республиканская партия
$2,084 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds a commanding lead in the CA-04 House race due to the district's established partisan composition, reflected in consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and nonpartisan forecaster ratings classifying it as solidly Democratic. Incumbent Mike Thompson, first elected in 1999 and seeking another term as a moderate member of the Blue Dog Coalition, benefits from name recognition and prior general-election margins exceeding 30 points. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary and subsequent November general election occur under newly approved district lines following 2025 redistricting. A Republican victory would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a major national political shift capable of overcoming the seat's structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$2,875Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds a commanding lead in the CA-04 House race due to the district's established partisan composition, reflected in consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and nonpartisan forecaster ratings classifying it as solidly Democratic. Incumbent Mike Thompson, first elected in 1999 and seeking another term as a moderate member of the Blue Dog Coalition, benefits from name recognition and prior general-election margins exceeding 30 points. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary and subsequent November general election occur under newly approved district lines following 2025 redistricting. A Republican victory would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a major national political shift capable of overcoming the seat's structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$2,875Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee holds a commanding lead in the CA-04 House race due to the district's established partisan composition, reflected in consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and nonpartisan forecaster ratings classifying it as solidly Democratic. Incumbent Mike Thompson, first elected in 1999 and seeking another term as a moderate member of the Blue Dog Coalition, benefits from name recognition and prior general-election margins exceeding 30 points. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary and subsequent November general election occur under newly approved district lines following 2025 redistricting. A Republican victory would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a major national political shift capable of overcoming the seat's structural Democratic advantage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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