Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, first elected in 1998 and reelected with 66.5% in 2024, faces fellow Democrat Eric Jones in the November 2026 general election after California's top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates. The district's strong Democratic lean—reflected in voter registration of 42% Democratic versus 30% Republican and consistent D+8 or stronger partisan voting indexes—combined with Thompson's long tenure on the Ways and Means Committee and superior fundraising, underpins trader consensus that a Democrat will prevail. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unforeseen primary outcome reversal, successful write-in campaign, or major late-cycle scandal shifting the district's fundamentals, all of which remain remote given the structural barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
$13,032 Vol.
$13,032 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$13,032 Vol.
$13,032 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,915 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$7,117 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, first elected in 1998 and reelected with 66.5% in 2024, faces fellow Democrat Eric Jones in the November 2026 general election after California's top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates. The district's strong Democratic lean—reflected in voter registration of 42% Democratic versus 30% Republican and consistent D+8 or stronger partisan voting indexes—combined with Thompson's long tenure on the Ways and Means Committee and superior fundraising, underpins trader consensus that a Democrat will prevail. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unforeseen primary outcome reversal, successful write-in campaign, or major late-cycle scandal shifting the district's fundamentals, all of which remain remote given the structural barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$13,032End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, first elected in 1998 and reelected with 66.5% in 2024, faces fellow Democrat Eric Jones in the November 2026 general election after California's top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates. The district's strong Democratic lean—reflected in voter registration of 42% Democratic versus 30% Republican and consistent D+8 or stronger partisan voting indexes—combined with Thompson's long tenure on the Ways and Means Committee and superior fundraising, underpins trader consensus that a Democrat will prevail. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unforeseen primary outcome reversal, successful write-in campaign, or major late-cycle scandal shifting the district's fundamentals, all of which remain remote given the structural barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,032End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, first elected in 1998 and reelected with 66.5% in 2024, faces fellow Democrat Eric Jones in the November 2026 general election after California's top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates. The district's strong Democratic lean—reflected in voter registration of 42% Democratic versus 30% Republican and consistent D+8 or stronger partisan voting indexes—combined with Thompson's long tenure on the Ways and Means Committee and superior fundraising, underpins trader consensus that a Democrat will prevail. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unforeseen primary outcome reversal, successful write-in campaign, or major late-cycle scandal shifting the district's fundamentals, all of which remain remote given the structural barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions