Florida's 4th congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean, who secured 57% of the vote in 2024, faces minimal primary opposition while holding substantial cash reserves. Democratic contenders, including Michael Kirwan and LaShonda Holloway, compete in an August 18 primary but confront structural headwinds in a district rated R+5 by partisan voting index metrics. With primaries still months away and no major recent shifts in voter sentiment or candidate dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party an 80.5% implied probability of retaining the seat.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
FL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$11,879 Vol.
$11,879 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
81%
Partido Democrata
19%
$11,879 Vol.
$11,879 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$6,745 Vol.
81%
Partido Democrata
$5,134 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean, who secured 57% of the vote in 2024, faces minimal primary opposition while holding substantial cash reserves. Democratic contenders, including Michael Kirwan and LaShonda Holloway, compete in an August 18 primary but confront structural headwinds in a district rated R+5 by partisan voting index metrics. With primaries still months away and no major recent shifts in voter sentiment or candidate dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party an 80.5% implied probability of retaining the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$11,879Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean, who secured 57% of the vote in 2024, faces minimal primary opposition while holding substantial cash reserves. Democratic contenders, including Michael Kirwan and LaShonda Holloway, compete in an August 18 primary but confront structural headwinds in a district rated R+5 by partisan voting index metrics. With primaries still months away and no major recent shifts in voter sentiment or candidate dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party an 80.5% implied probability of retaining the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,879Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 4th congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean, who secured 57% of the vote in 2024, faces minimal primary opposition while holding substantial cash reserves. Democratic contenders, including Michael Kirwan and LaShonda Holloway, compete in an August 18 primary but confront structural headwinds in a district rated R+5 by partisan voting index metrics. With primaries still months away and no major recent shifts in voter sentiment or candidate dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party an 80.5% implied probability of retaining the seat.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions