Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, backed by the seat's consistent Republican lean and his prior victories there. Bean advanced without opposition after the Republican primary was canceled, while LaShonda Holloway secured the Democratic nomination in the August 18 primary. Multiple forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its voting patterns and demographics across Duval, Clay, and Nassau counties. Bean maintains a substantial fundraising edge and endorsements from party figures, limiting Holloway's path despite her primary win and prior general election runs against the incumbent. Trader consensus aligns with these structural and resource advantages for the Republican nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$28,380 Vol.
$28,380 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
88%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
12%
$28,380 Vol.
$28,380 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
$17,094 Vol.
88%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
$11,286 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, backed by the seat's consistent Republican lean and his prior victories there. Bean advanced without opposition after the Republican primary was canceled, while LaShonda Holloway secured the Democratic nomination in the August 18 primary. Multiple forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its voting patterns and demographics across Duval, Clay, and Nassau counties. Bean maintains a substantial fundraising edge and endorsements from party figures, limiting Holloway's path despite her primary win and prior general election runs against the incumbent. Trader consensus aligns with these structural and resource advantages for the Republican nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$28,380End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, backed by the seat's consistent Republican lean and his prior victories there. Bean advanced without opposition after the Republican primary was canceled, while LaShonda Holloway secured the Democratic nomination in the August 18 primary. Multiple forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its voting patterns and demographics across Duval, Clay, and Nassau counties. Bean maintains a substantial fundraising edge and endorsements from party figures, limiting Holloway's path despite her primary win and prior general election runs against the incumbent. Trader consensus aligns with these structural and resource advantages for the Republican nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,380End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, backed by the seat's consistent Republican lean and his prior victories there. Bean advanced without opposition after the Republican primary was canceled, while LaShonda Holloway secured the Democratic nomination in the August 18 primary. Multiple forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its voting patterns and demographics across Duval, Clay, and Nassau counties. Bean maintains a substantial fundraising edge and endorsements from party figures, limiting Holloway's path despite her primary win and prior general election runs against the incumbent. Trader consensus aligns with these structural and resource advantages for the Republican nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions