Aaron Bean maintains a strong position in Florida’s 4th congressional district due to his incumbency, unopposed Republican primary, and substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million compared to Holloway’s roughly $27,000. The district’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in Bean’s 57.3% win in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, underpins trader consensus. Holloway secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary but faces structural barriers in a low-turnout environment favoring the incumbent. Minor-party candidates on the November 3 ballot have not altered the outlook, and no recent polling or developments have shifted the race’s competitive balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$28,380 Vol.
$28,380 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
88%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
12%
$28,380 Vol.
$28,380 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
$17,094 Vol.
88%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
$11,286 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Bean maintains a strong position in Florida’s 4th congressional district due to his incumbency, unopposed Republican primary, and substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million compared to Holloway’s roughly $27,000. The district’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in Bean’s 57.3% win in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, underpins trader consensus. Holloway secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary but faces structural barriers in a low-turnout environment favoring the incumbent. Minor-party candidates on the November 3 ballot have not altered the outlook, and no recent polling or developments have shifted the race’s competitive balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$28,380End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Bean maintains a strong position in Florida’s 4th congressional district due to his incumbency, unopposed Republican primary, and substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million compared to Holloway’s roughly $27,000. The district’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in Bean’s 57.3% win in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, underpins trader consensus. Holloway secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary but faces structural barriers in a low-turnout environment favoring the incumbent. Minor-party candidates on the November 3 ballot have not altered the outlook, and no recent polling or developments have shifted the race’s competitive balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,380End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Aaron Bean maintains a strong position in Florida’s 4th congressional district due to his incumbency, unopposed Republican primary, and substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million compared to Holloway’s roughly $27,000. The district’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in Bean’s 57.3% win in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, underpins trader consensus. Holloway secured the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary but faces structural barriers in a low-turnout environment favoring the incumbent. Minor-party candidates on the November 3 ballot have not altered the outlook, and no recent polling or developments have shifted the race’s competitive balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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