Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a strong position in Florida’s 4th congressional district, which carries an R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and encompasses portions of Duval County plus Nassau and Clay counties. Bean advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party’s nomination in the August 18 primary. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Bean’s prior 57% general-election margin, substantial cash on hand, and alignment with the district’s voting patterns underpin trader consensus around an 88% implied probability for the incumbent, with limited recent developments capable of narrowing the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$28,358 Vol.
$28,358 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
89%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
11%
$28,358 Vol.
$28,358 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
$17,072 Vol.
89%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
$11,286 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a strong position in Florida’s 4th congressional district, which carries an R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and encompasses portions of Duval County plus Nassau and Clay counties. Bean advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party’s nomination in the August 18 primary. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Bean’s prior 57% general-election margin, substantial cash on hand, and alignment with the district’s voting patterns underpin trader consensus around an 88% implied probability for the incumbent, with limited recent developments capable of narrowing the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$28,358End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a strong position in Florida’s 4th congressional district, which carries an R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and encompasses portions of Duval County plus Nassau and Clay counties. Bean advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party’s nomination in the August 18 primary. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Bean’s prior 57% general-election margin, substantial cash on hand, and alignment with the district’s voting patterns underpin trader consensus around an 88% implied probability for the incumbent, with limited recent developments capable of narrowing the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,358End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a strong position in Florida’s 4th congressional district, which carries an R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and encompasses portions of Duval County plus Nassau and Clay counties. Bean advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party’s nomination in the August 18 primary. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Bean’s prior 57% general-election margin, substantial cash on hand, and alignment with the district’s voting patterns underpin trader consensus around an 88% implied probability for the incumbent, with limited recent developments capable of narrowing the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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