Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader sentiment at 79.5% implied probability for the FL-04 House race, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook PVI and his consistent victories—57% in 2024 and 61% in 2022 against Democratic challengers. Bean's $1.2 million cash-on-hand dwarfs leading Democratic primary contender Michael Kirwan's $226,000 as of late March, bolstered by a February endorsement from Donald Trump and no credible Republican primary threat from Anthony Valerio. Multiple Democrats—Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson—vie in the August 18 closed primary, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem the seat Safe Republican, with general election resolution on November 3 barring major scandals or turnout surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$11,781 Vol.
$11,781 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
80%
Democratic Party
20%
$11,781 Vol.
$11,781 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,745 Vol.
80%
Democratic Party
$5,036 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader sentiment at 79.5% implied probability for the FL-04 House race, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook PVI and his consistent victories—57% in 2024 and 61% in 2022 against Democratic challengers. Bean's $1.2 million cash-on-hand dwarfs leading Democratic primary contender Michael Kirwan's $226,000 as of late March, bolstered by a February endorsement from Donald Trump and no credible Republican primary threat from Anthony Valerio. Multiple Democrats—Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson—vie in the August 18 closed primary, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem the seat Safe Republican, with general election resolution on November 3 barring major scandals or turnout surges.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$11,781End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader sentiment at 79.5% implied probability for the FL-04 House race, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook PVI and his consistent victories—57% in 2024 and 61% in 2022 against Democratic challengers. Bean's $1.2 million cash-on-hand dwarfs leading Democratic primary contender Michael Kirwan's $226,000 as of late March, bolstered by a February endorsement from Donald Trump and no credible Republican primary threat from Anthony Valerio. Multiple Democrats—Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson—vie in the August 18 closed primary, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem the seat Safe Republican, with general election resolution on November 3 barring major scandals or turnout surges.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,781End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader sentiment at 79.5% implied probability for the FL-04 House race, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook PVI and his consistent victories—57% in 2024 and 61% in 2022 against Democratic challengers. Bean's $1.2 million cash-on-hand dwarfs leading Democratic primary contender Michael Kirwan's $226,000 as of late March, bolstered by a February endorsement from Donald Trump and no credible Republican primary threat from Anthony Valerio. Multiple Democrats—Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson—vie in the August 18 closed primary, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem the seat Safe Republican, with general election resolution on November 3 barring major scandals or turnout surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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