Sam Liccardo’s commanding position in the CA-16 House race stems from the district’s heavy Democratic lean in the Silicon Valley region, his status as a first-term incumbent with strong name recognition from prior local office, and a dominant June 2026 top-two primary performance where he captured over 75 percent of the vote against fragmented Republican and independent challengers. Peter Soulé advanced as the Republican nominee but trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected national political shift, major scandal, or health issue involving the incumbent remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-16 House Election Winner
CA-16 House Election Winner
$107,365 Vol.
$107,365 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
97%
Peter Soulé (R)
2%
$107,365 Vol.
$107,365 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
$53,037 Vol.
97%
Peter Soulé (R)
$54,328 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s commanding position in the CA-16 House race stems from the district’s heavy Democratic lean in the Silicon Valley region, his status as a first-term incumbent with strong name recognition from prior local office, and a dominant June 2026 top-two primary performance where he captured over 75 percent of the vote against fragmented Republican and independent challengers. Peter Soulé advanced as the Republican nominee but trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected national political shift, major scandal, or health issue involving the incumbent remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$107,365End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s commanding position in the CA-16 House race stems from the district’s heavy Democratic lean in the Silicon Valley region, his status as a first-term incumbent with strong name recognition from prior local office, and a dominant June 2026 top-two primary performance where he captured over 75 percent of the vote against fragmented Republican and independent challengers. Peter Soulé advanced as the Republican nominee but trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected national political shift, major scandal, or health issue involving the incumbent remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$107,365End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sam Liccardo’s commanding position in the CA-16 House race stems from the district’s heavy Democratic lean in the Silicon Valley region, his status as a first-term incumbent with strong name recognition from prior local office, and a dominant June 2026 top-two primary performance where he captured over 75 percent of the vote against fragmented Republican and independent challengers. Peter Soulé advanced as the Republican nominee but trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected national political shift, major scandal, or health issue involving the incumbent remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions