Sam Liccardo’s position as the Democratic incumbent in California’s 16th congressional district underpins the current trader consensus, reinforced by his 75.6% primary win and the district’s consistent Democratic registration edge plus strong 2024 presidential performance. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for challenger Peter Soule further widen the gap. Late developments that could narrow the implied probability include major scandals, health events affecting either candidate, or an unexpected national partisan swing, though the structural advantages and primary results leave little room for such shifts to overcome the frontrunner’s lead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-16 House Election Winner
CA-16 House Election Winner
$107,478 Vol.
$107,478 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
96%
Peter Soulé (R)
2%
$107,478 Vol.
$107,478 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
$53,037 Vol.
96%
Peter Soulé (R)
$54,441 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s position as the Democratic incumbent in California’s 16th congressional district underpins the current trader consensus, reinforced by his 75.6% primary win and the district’s consistent Democratic registration edge plus strong 2024 presidential performance. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for challenger Peter Soule further widen the gap. Late developments that could narrow the implied probability include major scandals, health events affecting either candidate, or an unexpected national partisan swing, though the structural advantages and primary results leave little room for such shifts to overcome the frontrunner’s lead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$107,478End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s position as the Democratic incumbent in California’s 16th congressional district underpins the current trader consensus, reinforced by his 75.6% primary win and the district’s consistent Democratic registration edge plus strong 2024 presidential performance. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for challenger Peter Soule further widen the gap. Late developments that could narrow the implied probability include major scandals, health events affecting either candidate, or an unexpected national partisan swing, though the structural advantages and primary results leave little room for such shifts to overcome the frontrunner’s lead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$107,478End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sam Liccardo’s position as the Democratic incumbent in California’s 16th congressional district underpins the current trader consensus, reinforced by his 75.6% primary win and the district’s consistent Democratic registration edge plus strong 2024 presidential performance. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for challenger Peter Soule further widen the gap. Late developments that could narrow the implied probability include major scandals, health events affecting either candidate, or an unexpected national partisan swing, though the structural advantages and primary results leave little room for such shifts to overcome the frontrunner’s lead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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