**Kevin Mullin** holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s consistent Democratic advantage across San Mateo and San Francisco counties, his decisive primary win with 65 percent of the vote, and his prior 2024 reelection margin exceeding 73 percent. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting voter registration patterns and historical results that favor the incumbent. Charles Hoelter advanced as the top Republican but trails significantly in name recognition and fundraising. The November 3 contest is unlikely to shift absent major unforeseen events such as a late scandal, candidate health issue, or national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$122,454 Vol.
$122,454 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kevin Mullin (D)
96%
Charles Hoelter (R)
<1%
$122,454 Vol.
$122,454 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kevin Mullin (D)
$94,144 Vol.
96%
Charles Hoelter (R)
$28,310 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Kevin Mullin** holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s consistent Democratic advantage across San Mateo and San Francisco counties, his decisive primary win with 65 percent of the vote, and his prior 2024 reelection margin exceeding 73 percent. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting voter registration patterns and historical results that favor the incumbent. Charles Hoelter advanced as the top Republican but trails significantly in name recognition and fundraising. The November 3 contest is unlikely to shift absent major unforeseen events such as a late scandal, candidate health issue, or national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$122,454End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Kevin Mullin** holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s consistent Democratic advantage across San Mateo and San Francisco counties, his decisive primary win with 65 percent of the vote, and his prior 2024 reelection margin exceeding 73 percent. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting voter registration patterns and historical results that favor the incumbent. Charles Hoelter advanced as the top Republican but trails significantly in name recognition and fundraising. The November 3 contest is unlikely to shift absent major unforeseen events such as a late scandal, candidate health issue, or national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$122,454End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Kevin Mullin** holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s consistent Democratic advantage across San Mateo and San Francisco counties, his decisive primary win with 65 percent of the vote, and his prior 2024 reelection margin exceeding 73 percent. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting voter registration patterns and historical results that favor the incumbent. Charles Hoelter advanced as the top Republican but trails significantly in name recognition and fundraising. The November 3 contest is unlikely to shift absent major unforeseen events such as a late scandal, candidate health issue, or national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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