Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for CA-39 House Election Winner
Politics·Nov 4 Elections

CA-39 House Election Winner

icon for CA-39 House Election Winner
Politics·Nov 4 Elections

CA-39 House Election Winner

Polymarket

$55,057 Vol.

Polymarket

$55,057 Vol.

Mark Takano (D)

$38,587 Vol.

95%

Steve Manos (R)

$16,469 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Takano's long incumbency in the Democratic-leaning California 39th district, combined with its D+7 to D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring his re-election on November 3. The June top-two primary advanced both Takano and Republican challenger Steve Manos, a Lake Elsinore city councilor, but fundraising data shows the incumbent maintaining a substantial edge while the district's voting patterns have favored Democrats in recent cycles. With the general election still weeks away, potential shifts could stem from unexpected national political developments, candidate-specific events such as health issues or controversies, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters in Riverside County that alters the margin.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$55,057
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x2f5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Takano's long incumbency in the Democratic-leaning California 39th district, combined with its D+7 to D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring his re-election on November 3. The June top-two primary advanced both Takano and Republican challenger Steve Manos, a Lake Elsinore city councilor, but fundraising data shows the incumbent maintaining a substantial edge while the district's voting patterns have favored Democrats in recent cycles. With the general election still weeks away, potential shifts could stem from unexpected national political developments, candidate-specific events such as health issues or controversies, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters in Riverside County that alters the margin.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$55,057
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x2f5e3684c...

Related

icon for Will the Democratic Party win the CA-43 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-43 House seat?

97%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?

100%
icon for Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?

Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?

62%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-39 House Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Takano (D)" at 95%, followed by "Steve Manos (R)" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-39 House Election Winner" has generated $55.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-39 House Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-39 House Election Winner" is "Mark Takano (D)" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Steve Manos (R)" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-39 House Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.