Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 expanded Florida's 9th Congressional District to include more rural and conservative counties such as Indian River and Highlands, shifting its partisan baseline and prompting nonpartisan forecasters to rate the seat Likely or Lean Republican. Dan Green secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with a narrow plurality over several rivals, bringing his military service, Trump administration Pentagon experience, and endorsements from veterans' groups and state Republicans to the general election matchup. Incumbent Darren Soto advanced unopposed on the Democratic side but faces a more challenging electorate under the new lines, with campaign finance and positioning on taxes and spending emerging as focal points. A late-August poll showed the candidates statistically tied among likely voters. The November 3 contest remains the key resolution trigger, with trader consensus reflecting these structural and candidate factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-09 House Election Winner
FL-09 House Election Winner
$22,010 Vol.
$22,010 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Dan Green (R)
69%
Darren Soto (D)
32%
$22,010 Vol.
$22,010 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Dan Green (R)
$12,857 Vol.
69%
Darren Soto (D)
$9,153 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 expanded Florida's 9th Congressional District to include more rural and conservative counties such as Indian River and Highlands, shifting its partisan baseline and prompting nonpartisan forecasters to rate the seat Likely or Lean Republican. Dan Green secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with a narrow plurality over several rivals, bringing his military service, Trump administration Pentagon experience, and endorsements from veterans' groups and state Republicans to the general election matchup. Incumbent Darren Soto advanced unopposed on the Democratic side but faces a more challenging electorate under the new lines, with campaign finance and positioning on taxes and spending emerging as focal points. A late-August poll showed the candidates statistically tied among likely voters. The November 3 contest remains the key resolution trigger, with trader consensus reflecting these structural and candidate factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$22,010End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 expanded Florida's 9th Congressional District to include more rural and conservative counties such as Indian River and Highlands, shifting its partisan baseline and prompting nonpartisan forecasters to rate the seat Likely or Lean Republican. Dan Green secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with a narrow plurality over several rivals, bringing his military service, Trump administration Pentagon experience, and endorsements from veterans' groups and state Republicans to the general election matchup. Incumbent Darren Soto advanced unopposed on the Democratic side but faces a more challenging electorate under the new lines, with campaign finance and positioning on taxes and spending emerging as focal points. A late-August poll showed the candidates statistically tied among likely voters. The November 3 contest remains the key resolution trigger, with trader consensus reflecting these structural and candidate factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,010End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 expanded Florida's 9th Congressional District to include more rural and conservative counties such as Indian River and Highlands, shifting its partisan baseline and prompting nonpartisan forecasters to rate the seat Likely or Lean Republican. Dan Green secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with a narrow plurality over several rivals, bringing his military service, Trump administration Pentagon experience, and endorsements from veterans' groups and state Republicans to the general election matchup. Incumbent Darren Soto advanced unopposed on the Democratic side but faces a more challenging electorate under the new lines, with campaign finance and positioning on taxes and spending emerging as focal points. A late-August poll showed the candidates statistically tied among likely voters. The November 3 contest remains the key resolution trigger, with trader consensus reflecting these structural and candidate factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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