Redistricting after the 2025 cycle shifted Florida’s 9th Congressional District toward a Republican lean, prompting multiple forecasters to rate the November 3, 2026 general election Likely Republican or Lean Republican. Dan Green secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 25.4% of the vote in a crowded field and has since consolidated support through endorsements from veterans, sheriffs, and conservative leaders. Incumbent Darren Soto advanced unopposed on the Democratic side. A late-August poll showed the candidates tied at 41% each among likely voters. Trader pricing at 68.5% for Green reflects the district’s altered partisan baseline, Green’s biographical advantages on security and fiscal issues, and the absence of major late-breaking developments that would alter the current balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-09 House Election Winner
FL-09 House Election Winner
$22,003 Vol.
$22,003 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Dan Green (R)
69%
Darren Soto (D)
32%
$22,003 Vol.
$22,003 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Dan Green (R)
$12,850 Vol.
69%
Darren Soto (D)
$9,153 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting after the 2025 cycle shifted Florida’s 9th Congressional District toward a Republican lean, prompting multiple forecasters to rate the November 3, 2026 general election Likely Republican or Lean Republican. Dan Green secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 25.4% of the vote in a crowded field and has since consolidated support through endorsements from veterans, sheriffs, and conservative leaders. Incumbent Darren Soto advanced unopposed on the Democratic side. A late-August poll showed the candidates tied at 41% each among likely voters. Trader pricing at 68.5% for Green reflects the district’s altered partisan baseline, Green’s biographical advantages on security and fiscal issues, and the absence of major late-breaking developments that would alter the current balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$22,003End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting after the 2025 cycle shifted Florida’s 9th Congressional District toward a Republican lean, prompting multiple forecasters to rate the November 3, 2026 general election Likely Republican or Lean Republican. Dan Green secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 25.4% of the vote in a crowded field and has since consolidated support through endorsements from veterans, sheriffs, and conservative leaders. Incumbent Darren Soto advanced unopposed on the Democratic side. A late-August poll showed the candidates tied at 41% each among likely voters. Trader pricing at 68.5% for Green reflects the district’s altered partisan baseline, Green’s biographical advantages on security and fiscal issues, and the absence of major late-breaking developments that would alter the current balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,003End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Redistricting after the 2025 cycle shifted Florida’s 9th Congressional District toward a Republican lean, prompting multiple forecasters to rate the November 3, 2026 general election Likely Republican or Lean Republican. Dan Green secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 25.4% of the vote in a crowded field and has since consolidated support through endorsements from veterans, sheriffs, and conservative leaders. Incumbent Darren Soto advanced unopposed on the Democratic side. A late-August poll showed the candidates tied at 41% each among likely voters. Trader pricing at 68.5% for Green reflects the district’s altered partisan baseline, Green’s biographical advantages on security and fiscal issues, and the absence of major late-breaking developments that would alter the current balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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