Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto holds a fundraising edge with over $600,000 cash on hand and faces no primary opposition ahead of the August 18 closed primary, bolstering his position in the D+4 district where he won 55% in 2024. Yet trader sentiment prices Democrats at 45.5% and Republicans at 36.5%, reflecting a crowded GOP primary featuring well-funded Thomas Chalifoux ($2 million raised) and Justin Story, amid Trump's narrow 3-point presidential margin locally and ongoing Republican outreach to Hispanic voters in Osceola and Orange counties. Forecasters like Cook rate it Solid Democratic, but a consolidated GOP nominee or national midterm shifts could widen the gap, while redistricting opposition limits map changes before the June 12 filing deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-09 House Election Winner
FL-09 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
63%
Republican Party
36%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$674 Vol.
63%
Republican Party
$506 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto holds a fundraising edge with over $600,000 cash on hand and faces no primary opposition ahead of the August 18 closed primary, bolstering his position in the D+4 district where he won 55% in 2024. Yet trader sentiment prices Democrats at 45.5% and Republicans at 36.5%, reflecting a crowded GOP primary featuring well-funded Thomas Chalifoux ($2 million raised) and Justin Story, amid Trump's narrow 3-point presidential margin locally and ongoing Republican outreach to Hispanic voters in Osceola and Orange counties. Forecasters like Cook rate it Solid Democratic, but a consolidated GOP nominee or national midterm shifts could widen the gap, while redistricting opposition limits map changes before the June 12 filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$1,180End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto holds a fundraising edge with over $600,000 cash on hand and faces no primary opposition ahead of the August 18 closed primary, bolstering his position in the D+4 district where he won 55% in 2024. Yet trader sentiment prices Democrats at 45.5% and Republicans at 36.5%, reflecting a crowded GOP primary featuring well-funded Thomas Chalifoux ($2 million raised) and Justin Story, amid Trump's narrow 3-point presidential margin locally and ongoing Republican outreach to Hispanic voters in Osceola and Orange counties. Forecasters like Cook rate it Solid Democratic, but a consolidated GOP nominee or national midterm shifts could widen the gap, while redistricting opposition limits map changes before the June 12 filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,180End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto holds a fundraising edge with over $600,000 cash on hand and faces no primary opposition ahead of the August 18 closed primary, bolstering his position in the D+4 district where he won 55% in 2024. Yet trader sentiment prices Democrats at 45.5% and Republicans at 36.5%, reflecting a crowded GOP primary featuring well-funded Thomas Chalifoux ($2 million raised) and Justin Story, amid Trump's narrow 3-point presidential margin locally and ongoing Republican outreach to Hispanic voters in Osceola and Orange counties. Forecasters like Cook rate it Solid Democratic, but a consolidated GOP nominee or national midterm shifts could widen the gap, while redistricting opposition limits map changes before the June 12 filing deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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