Trader consensus in the New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District House race strongly favors the Democratic Party at 82.5% implied probability, driven by incumbent Ann McLane Kuster's commanding position in recent polling averages showing her leads of 20+ points over Republican Michael Vigorito. The district's D+8 partisan voting index and Kuster's incumbency advantage, bolstered by superior fundraising and a track record since 2013, anchor this positioning amid light GOP investment in non-battleground seats. No major developments in the past week have altered dynamics, with early voting now active ahead of Election Day; forecasters universally rate it Safe Democratic, though national trends or scandals could theoretically shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNH-02 House Election Winner
NH-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
74%
Republican Party
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
74%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in the New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District House race strongly favors the Democratic Party at 82.5% implied probability, driven by incumbent Ann McLane Kuster's commanding position in recent polling averages showing her leads of 20+ points over Republican Michael Vigorito. The district's D+8 partisan voting index and Kuster's incumbency advantage, bolstered by superior fundraising and a track record since 2013, anchor this positioning amid light GOP investment in non-battleground seats. No major developments in the past week have altered dynamics, with early voting now active ahead of Election Day; forecasters universally rate it Safe Democratic, though national trends or scandals could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in the New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District House race strongly favors the Democratic Party at 82.5% implied probability, driven by incumbent Ann McLane Kuster's commanding position in recent polling averages showing her leads of 20+ points over Republican Michael Vigorito. The district's D+8 partisan voting index and Kuster's incumbency advantage, bolstered by superior fundraising and a track record since 2013, anchor this positioning amid light GOP investment in non-battleground seats. No major developments in the past week have altered dynamics, with early voting now active ahead of Election Day; forecasters universally rate it Safe Democratic, though national trends or scandals could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District House race strongly favors the Democratic Party at 82.5% implied probability, driven by incumbent Ann McLane Kuster's commanding position in recent polling averages showing her leads of 20+ points over Republican Michael Vigorito. The district's D+8 partisan voting index and Kuster's incumbency advantage, bolstered by superior fundraising and a track record since 2013, anchor this positioning amid light GOP investment in non-battleground seats. No major developments in the past week have altered dynamics, with early voting now active ahead of Election Day; forecasters universally rate it Safe Democratic, though national trends or scandals could theoretically shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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