Brian Mast, the Republican incumbent, holds a commanding lead in the Florida 21st congressional district race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+7 Partisan Voter Index and Mast’s 61.8% victory in 2024. He advanced unopposed through the August 2026 Republican primary while raising over $4.3 million, far outpacing Democratic nominee James Martin, who narrowly won his primary and has raised under $600,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. The November 3 general election remains more than six weeks away, leaving room for late developments such as unexpected national political shifts, health events, or major scandals to influence the final margin, though the structural advantages favor the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-21 House Election Winner
FL-21 House Election Winner
$15,736 Vol.
$15,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Brian Mast (R)
91%
James Martin (D)
10%
$15,736 Vol.
$15,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Brian Mast (R)
$9,300 Vol.
91%
James Martin (D)
$6,436 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brian Mast, the Republican incumbent, holds a commanding lead in the Florida 21st congressional district race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+7 Partisan Voter Index and Mast’s 61.8% victory in 2024. He advanced unopposed through the August 2026 Republican primary while raising over $4.3 million, far outpacing Democratic nominee James Martin, who narrowly won his primary and has raised under $600,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. The November 3 general election remains more than six weeks away, leaving room for late developments such as unexpected national political shifts, health events, or major scandals to influence the final margin, though the structural advantages favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$15,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brian Mast, the Republican incumbent, holds a commanding lead in the Florida 21st congressional district race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+7 Partisan Voter Index and Mast’s 61.8% victory in 2024. He advanced unopposed through the August 2026 Republican primary while raising over $4.3 million, far outpacing Democratic nominee James Martin, who narrowly won his primary and has raised under $600,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. The November 3 general election remains more than six weeks away, leaving room for late developments such as unexpected national political shifts, health events, or major scandals to influence the final margin, though the structural advantages favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Brian Mast, the Republican incumbent, holds a commanding lead in the Florida 21st congressional district race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+7 Partisan Voter Index and Mast’s 61.8% victory in 2024. He advanced unopposed through the August 2026 Republican primary while raising over $4.3 million, far outpacing Democratic nominee James Martin, who narrowly won his primary and has raised under $600,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. The November 3 general election remains more than six weeks away, leaving room for late developments such as unexpected national political shifts, health events, or major scandals to influence the final margin, though the structural advantages favor the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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