Incumbent Republican Brian Mast holds a commanding position in Florida’s 21st Congressional District race, reflected in the 90.5% trader consensus on Polymarket. The district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by Mast’s 61.8% victory in 2024 and Donald Trump’s strong performance there, underpins this outlook. Mast faces no primary opposition and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million, while Democratic nominee James Martin, who narrowly won his August 2026 primary, trails significantly in resources. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting Mast, or an unexpected national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-21 House Election Winner
FL-21 House Election Winner
$15,736 Vol.
$15,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Brian Mast (R)
91%
James Martin (D)
9%
$15,736 Vol.
$15,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Brian Mast (R)
$9,300 Vol.
91%
James Martin (D)
$6,436 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Mast holds a commanding position in Florida’s 21st Congressional District race, reflected in the 90.5% trader consensus on Polymarket. The district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by Mast’s 61.8% victory in 2024 and Donald Trump’s strong performance there, underpins this outlook. Mast faces no primary opposition and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million, while Democratic nominee James Martin, who narrowly won his August 2026 primary, trails significantly in resources. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting Mast, or an unexpected national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$15,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Mast holds a commanding position in Florida’s 21st Congressional District race, reflected in the 90.5% trader consensus on Polymarket. The district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by Mast’s 61.8% victory in 2024 and Donald Trump’s strong performance there, underpins this outlook. Mast faces no primary opposition and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million, while Democratic nominee James Martin, who narrowly won his August 2026 primary, trails significantly in resources. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting Mast, or an unexpected national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brian Mast holds a commanding position in Florida’s 21st Congressional District race, reflected in the 90.5% trader consensus on Polymarket. The district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by Mast’s 61.8% victory in 2024 and Donald Trump’s strong performance there, underpins this outlook. Mast faces no primary opposition and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million, while Democratic nominee James Martin, who narrowly won his August 2026 primary, trails significantly in resources. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting Mast, or an unexpected national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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