Following Proposition 50's passage in November 2025, California's new congressional maps shifted CA-03 leftward into Solid Democratic territory per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with Kamala Harris carrying the district area by double digits in 2024 despite its R+2 partisan voter index. Former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley opted out in February 2026 to run as an independent in CA-06, leaving an open seat where well-funded Democratic Rep. Ami Bera—relocating from CA-06 with nearly $2 million cash-on-hand—leads a crowded primary field including Chris Bennett, Heidi Hall, and Lyndon Cervantes against lone notable Republican Christine Bish. Traders price Democratic Party victory at 90.5% implied probability ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, likely advancing two Democrats to guarantee the party's general election hold on November 3; upset scenarios include a GOP primary surge, Bera scandal, or national midterm Republican wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-03 House Election Winner
CA-03 House Election Winner
$11,646 Vol.
$11,646 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
8%
$11,646 Vol.
$11,646 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,585 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$5,061 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following Proposition 50's passage in November 2025, California's new congressional maps shifted CA-03 leftward into Solid Democratic territory per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with Kamala Harris carrying the district area by double digits in 2024 despite its R+2 partisan voter index. Former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley opted out in February 2026 to run as an independent in CA-06, leaving an open seat where well-funded Democratic Rep. Ami Bera—relocating from CA-06 with nearly $2 million cash-on-hand—leads a crowded primary field including Chris Bennett, Heidi Hall, and Lyndon Cervantes against lone notable Republican Christine Bish. Traders price Democratic Party victory at 90.5% implied probability ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, likely advancing two Democrats to guarantee the party's general election hold on November 3; upset scenarios include a GOP primary surge, Bera scandal, or national midterm Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$11,646End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following Proposition 50's passage in November 2025, California's new congressional maps shifted CA-03 leftward into Solid Democratic territory per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with Kamala Harris carrying the district area by double digits in 2024 despite its R+2 partisan voter index. Former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley opted out in February 2026 to run as an independent in CA-06, leaving an open seat where well-funded Democratic Rep. Ami Bera—relocating from CA-06 with nearly $2 million cash-on-hand—leads a crowded primary field including Chris Bennett, Heidi Hall, and Lyndon Cervantes against lone notable Republican Christine Bish. Traders price Democratic Party victory at 90.5% implied probability ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, likely advancing two Democrats to guarantee the party's general election hold on November 3; upset scenarios include a GOP primary surge, Bera scandal, or national midterm Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,646End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following Proposition 50's passage in November 2025, California's new congressional maps shifted CA-03 leftward into Solid Democratic territory per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with Kamala Harris carrying the district area by double digits in 2024 despite its R+2 partisan voter index. Former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley opted out in February 2026 to run as an independent in CA-06, leaving an open seat where well-funded Democratic Rep. Ami Bera—relocating from CA-06 with nearly $2 million cash-on-hand—leads a crowded primary field including Chris Bennett, Heidi Hall, and Lyndon Cervantes against lone notable Republican Christine Bish. Traders price Democratic Party victory at 90.5% implied probability ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, likely advancing two Democrats to guarantee the party's general election hold on November 3; upset scenarios include a GOP primary surge, Bera scandal, or national midterm Republican wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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