Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, where nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 primary. The district's consistent partisan lean, reflected in prior double-digit Republican margins and its R+19 to R+20 voting index, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Scalise's substantial fundraising edge, endorsements, and limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington contrast with Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett's modest resources. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected surge in opposition turnout could still shift the outcome before the primary or any December runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLA-01 House Election Winner
LA-01 House Election Winner
$52,244 Vol.
$52,244 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
96%
Democratic Party
5%
$52,244 Vol.
$52,244 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$22,399 Vol.
96%
Democratic Party
$29,844 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, where nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 primary. The district's consistent partisan lean, reflected in prior double-digit Republican margins and its R+19 to R+20 voting index, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Scalise's substantial fundraising edge, endorsements, and limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington contrast with Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett's modest resources. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected surge in opposition turnout could still shift the outcome before the primary or any December runoff.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$52,244End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, where nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 primary. The district's consistent partisan lean, reflected in prior double-digit Republican margins and its R+19 to R+20 voting index, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Scalise's substantial fundraising edge, endorsements, and limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington contrast with Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett's modest resources. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected surge in opposition turnout could still shift the outcome before the primary or any December runoff.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,244End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, where nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 primary. The district's consistent partisan lean, reflected in prior double-digit Republican margins and its R+19 to R+20 voting index, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Scalise's substantial fundraising edge, endorsements, and limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington contrast with Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett's modest resources. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected surge in opposition turnout could still shift the outcome before the primary or any December runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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