Louisiana’s 1st congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and repeated double-digit victories for GOP candidates. Incumbent Steve Scalise, serving as House Majority Leader and first elected in 2008, holds a substantial fundraising edge and faces only modest primary opposition from Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett under the state’s November 3 open primary system. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican with no recent polling shifts or major campaign developments altering the outlook. Trader consensus at 96% for a Republican winner aligns with these structural factors. Late-cycle surprises such as an incumbent health issue, unexpected primary consolidation against Scalise, or a sharp national Democratic surge could still narrow margins in the suburban New Orleans area.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLA-01 House Election Winner
LA-01 House Election Winner
$52,244 Vol.
$52,244 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
96%
Democratic Party
4%
$52,244 Vol.
$52,244 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$22,399 Vol.
96%
Democratic Party
$29,844 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana’s 1st congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and repeated double-digit victories for GOP candidates. Incumbent Steve Scalise, serving as House Majority Leader and first elected in 2008, holds a substantial fundraising edge and faces only modest primary opposition from Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett under the state’s November 3 open primary system. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican with no recent polling shifts or major campaign developments altering the outlook. Trader consensus at 96% for a Republican winner aligns with these structural factors. Late-cycle surprises such as an incumbent health issue, unexpected primary consolidation against Scalise, or a sharp national Democratic surge could still narrow margins in the suburban New Orleans area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$52,244End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana’s 1st congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and repeated double-digit victories for GOP candidates. Incumbent Steve Scalise, serving as House Majority Leader and first elected in 2008, holds a substantial fundraising edge and faces only modest primary opposition from Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett under the state’s November 3 open primary system. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican with no recent polling shifts or major campaign developments altering the outlook. Trader consensus at 96% for a Republican winner aligns with these structural factors. Late-cycle surprises such as an incumbent health issue, unexpected primary consolidation against Scalise, or a sharp national Democratic surge could still narrow margins in the suburban New Orleans area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,244End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana’s 1st congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and repeated double-digit victories for GOP candidates. Incumbent Steve Scalise, serving as House Majority Leader and first elected in 2008, holds a substantial fundraising edge and faces only modest primary opposition from Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett under the state’s November 3 open primary system. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican with no recent polling shifts or major campaign developments altering the outlook. Trader consensus at 96% for a Republican winner aligns with these structural factors. Late-cycle surprises such as an incumbent health issue, unexpected primary consolidation against Scalise, or a sharp national Democratic surge could still narrow margins in the suburban New Orleans area.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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