Nick Langworthy’s commanding position in the NY-23 House race stems from the district’s consistent Republican lean, rated Solid Republican with a partisan baseline exceeding R+19, combined with his incumbency advantage and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million. The June 2026 primaries clarified the matchup, with Langworthy advancing unopposed on the Republican and Conservative lines while Aaron Gies secured the Democratic and Working Families nominations after defeating a primary opponent. Recent local appearances by the incumbent have reinforced his established presence across the Western New York and Southern Tier counties. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Langworthy reflects these structural factors, though shifts could arise from unusually high Democratic turnout, late national political developments, or unforeseen candidate-specific events before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-23 House Election Winner
NY-23 House Election Winner
$32,297 Vol.
$32,297 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Nick Langworthy (R)
96%
Aaron Gies (D)
4%
$32,297 Vol.
$32,297 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Nick Langworthy (R)
$16,797 Vol.
96%
Aaron Gies (D)
$15,500 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nick Langworthy’s commanding position in the NY-23 House race stems from the district’s consistent Republican lean, rated Solid Republican with a partisan baseline exceeding R+19, combined with his incumbency advantage and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million. The June 2026 primaries clarified the matchup, with Langworthy advancing unopposed on the Republican and Conservative lines while Aaron Gies secured the Democratic and Working Families nominations after defeating a primary opponent. Recent local appearances by the incumbent have reinforced his established presence across the Western New York and Southern Tier counties. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Langworthy reflects these structural factors, though shifts could arise from unusually high Democratic turnout, late national political developments, or unforeseen candidate-specific events before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,297End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nick Langworthy’s commanding position in the NY-23 House race stems from the district’s consistent Republican lean, rated Solid Republican with a partisan baseline exceeding R+19, combined with his incumbency advantage and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million. The June 2026 primaries clarified the matchup, with Langworthy advancing unopposed on the Republican and Conservative lines while Aaron Gies secured the Democratic and Working Families nominations after defeating a primary opponent. Recent local appearances by the incumbent have reinforced his established presence across the Western New York and Southern Tier counties. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Langworthy reflects these structural factors, though shifts could arise from unusually high Democratic turnout, late national political developments, or unforeseen candidate-specific events before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,297End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Nick Langworthy’s commanding position in the NY-23 House race stems from the district’s consistent Republican lean, rated Solid Republican with a partisan baseline exceeding R+19, combined with his incumbency advantage and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million. The June 2026 primaries clarified the matchup, with Langworthy advancing unopposed on the Republican and Conservative lines while Aaron Gies secured the Democratic and Working Families nominations after defeating a primary opponent. Recent local appearances by the incumbent have reinforced his established presence across the Western New York and Southern Tier counties. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Langworthy reflects these structural factors, though shifts could arise from unusually high Democratic turnout, late national political developments, or unforeseen candidate-specific events before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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