Missouri’s 6th congressional district carries an R+13 Partisan Voter Index and has been rated Solid Republican by Cook, Inside Elections, and other forecasters ahead of the November 3 general election. The seat opened after longtime incumbent Sam Graves retired, but the August 4 primaries produced Republican nominee Chris Stigall and Democratic nominee Josh Smead without altering the district’s underlying partisan composition despite recent redistricting that incorporated additional Kansas City Northland territory. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican reflects the absence of competitive polling, limited Democratic resources in a historically rural and conservative-leaning seat, and Stigall’s primary victory backed by Graves’ endorsement. A Democratic win would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, elevated suburban turnout, or late-cycle developments capable of overcoming the structural Republican advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-06 House Election Winner
MO-06 House Election Winner
$42,533 Vol.
$42,533 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$42,533 Vol.
$42,533 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$27,128 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$15,404 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 6th congressional district carries an R+13 Partisan Voter Index and has been rated Solid Republican by Cook, Inside Elections, and other forecasters ahead of the November 3 general election. The seat opened after longtime incumbent Sam Graves retired, but the August 4 primaries produced Republican nominee Chris Stigall and Democratic nominee Josh Smead without altering the district’s underlying partisan composition despite recent redistricting that incorporated additional Kansas City Northland territory. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican reflects the absence of competitive polling, limited Democratic resources in a historically rural and conservative-leaning seat, and Stigall’s primary victory backed by Graves’ endorsement. A Democratic win would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, elevated suburban turnout, or late-cycle developments capable of overcoming the structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$42,533End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 6th congressional district carries an R+13 Partisan Voter Index and has been rated Solid Republican by Cook, Inside Elections, and other forecasters ahead of the November 3 general election. The seat opened after longtime incumbent Sam Graves retired, but the August 4 primaries produced Republican nominee Chris Stigall and Democratic nominee Josh Smead without altering the district’s underlying partisan composition despite recent redistricting that incorporated additional Kansas City Northland territory. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican reflects the absence of competitive polling, limited Democratic resources in a historically rural and conservative-leaning seat, and Stigall’s primary victory backed by Graves’ endorsement. A Democratic win would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, elevated suburban turnout, or late-cycle developments capable of overcoming the structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,533End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 6th congressional district carries an R+13 Partisan Voter Index and has been rated Solid Republican by Cook, Inside Elections, and other forecasters ahead of the November 3 general election. The seat opened after longtime incumbent Sam Graves retired, but the August 4 primaries produced Republican nominee Chris Stigall and Democratic nominee Josh Smead without altering the district’s underlying partisan composition despite recent redistricting that incorporated additional Kansas City Northland territory. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican reflects the absence of competitive polling, limited Democratic resources in a historically rural and conservative-leaning seat, and Stigall’s primary victory backed by Graves’ endorsement. A Democratic win would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, elevated suburban turnout, or late-cycle developments capable of overcoming the structural Republican advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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