Missouri’s 6th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Sam Graves. All major race ratings classify the contest as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting the district’s rural northwest Missouri base, consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, and limited Democratic infrastructure. With primaries set for August 4, 2026, Republican contenders including Chris Stigall (backed by Graves) and Nathan Willett dominate fundraising and attention, while Democratic hopefuls Matthew Levine, Scot Pondelick, and Josh Smead face an uphill path in a district that has trended strongly conservative. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage and historical precedent for similar open seats in the state. A late Republican primary upset or unforeseen general-election shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though current indicators point to continued GOP control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-06 House Election Winner
MO-06 House Election Winner
$35,268 Vol.
$35,268 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$35,268 Vol.
$35,268 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$26,145 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$9,123 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 6th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Sam Graves. All major race ratings classify the contest as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting the district’s rural northwest Missouri base, consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, and limited Democratic infrastructure. With primaries set for August 4, 2026, Republican contenders including Chris Stigall (backed by Graves) and Nathan Willett dominate fundraising and attention, while Democratic hopefuls Matthew Levine, Scot Pondelick, and Josh Smead face an uphill path in a district that has trended strongly conservative. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage and historical precedent for similar open seats in the state. A late Republican primary upset or unforeseen general-election shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though current indicators point to continued GOP control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$35,268End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 6th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Sam Graves. All major race ratings classify the contest as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting the district’s rural northwest Missouri base, consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, and limited Democratic infrastructure. With primaries set for August 4, 2026, Republican contenders including Chris Stigall (backed by Graves) and Nathan Willett dominate fundraising and attention, while Democratic hopefuls Matthew Levine, Scot Pondelick, and Josh Smead face an uphill path in a district that has trended strongly conservative. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage and historical precedent for similar open seats in the state. A late Republican primary upset or unforeseen general-election shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though current indicators point to continued GOP control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,268End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 6th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Sam Graves. All major race ratings classify the contest as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting the district’s rural northwest Missouri base, consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, and limited Democratic infrastructure. With primaries set for August 4, 2026, Republican contenders including Chris Stigall (backed by Graves) and Nathan Willett dominate fundraising and attention, while Democratic hopefuls Matthew Levine, Scot Pondelick, and Josh Smead face an uphill path in a district that has trended strongly conservative. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage and historical precedent for similar open seats in the state. A late Republican primary upset or unforeseen general-election shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though current indicators point to continued GOP control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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