Long-serving Rep. Sam Graves' retirement announcement on March 27 opened Missouri's 6th Congressional District, an R+19 stronghold rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, yet trader consensus heavily favors the GOP at 92.5% due to the district's history of 70%+ Republican general election margins and Trump carrying it 69%-30% in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including state Rep. Mazie Christenson and radio host Chris Stigall, have jumped into the August 4 primary, while Democratic filers like Josh Smead and Matthew Levine hold minimal cash on hand. Scenarios challenging this include a damaging GOP primary or high-profile Democratic recruitment before the March 31 filing deadline and November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMO-06 House Election Winner
MO-06 House Election Winner
$12,003 Vol.
$12,003 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$12,003 Vol.
$12,003 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$12,003 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Rep. Sam Graves' retirement announcement on March 27 opened Missouri's 6th Congressional District, an R+19 stronghold rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, yet trader consensus heavily favors the GOP at 92.5% due to the district's history of 70%+ Republican general election margins and Trump carrying it 69%-30% in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including state Rep. Mazie Christenson and radio host Chris Stigall, have jumped into the August 4 primary, while Democratic filers like Josh Smead and Matthew Levine hold minimal cash on hand. Scenarios challenging this include a damaging GOP primary or high-profile Democratic recruitment before the March 31 filing deadline and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$12,003End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Rep. Sam Graves' retirement announcement on March 27 opened Missouri's 6th Congressional District, an R+19 stronghold rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, yet trader consensus heavily favors the GOP at 92.5% due to the district's history of 70%+ Republican general election margins and Trump carrying it 69%-30% in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including state Rep. Mazie Christenson and radio host Chris Stigall, have jumped into the August 4 primary, while Democratic filers like Josh Smead and Matthew Levine hold minimal cash on hand. Scenarios challenging this include a damaging GOP primary or high-profile Democratic recruitment before the March 31 filing deadline and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,003End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Rep. Sam Graves' retirement announcement on March 27 opened Missouri's 6th Congressional District, an R+19 stronghold rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, yet trader consensus heavily favors the GOP at 92.5% due to the district's history of 70%+ Republican general election margins and Trump carrying it 69%-30% in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including state Rep. Mazie Christenson and radio host Chris Stigall, have jumped into the August 4 primary, while Democratic filers like Josh Smead and Matthew Levine hold minimal cash on hand. Scenarios challenging this include a damaging GOP primary or high-profile Democratic recruitment before the March 31 filing deadline and November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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