Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, supported by the district’s Republican lean and her established record. Major forecasters rate the race as Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring Wagner at 73.5 percent. Wagner secured her party’s nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army veteran, emerged from a competitive primary. Early internal polling from May showed a close head-to-head matchup that tightened further after candidate profiles were presented, yet the seat’s partisan baseline and Wagner’s incumbency have kept the race from shifting into toss-up territory. No major late developments have altered the outlook in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-02 House Election Winner
MO-02 House Election Winner
$26,213 Vol.
$26,213 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ann Wagner (R)
74%
Fred Wellman (D)
23%
$26,213 Vol.
$26,213 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ann Wagner (R)
$15,173 Vol.
74%
Fred Wellman (D)
$11,040 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, supported by the district’s Republican lean and her established record. Major forecasters rate the race as Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring Wagner at 73.5 percent. Wagner secured her party’s nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army veteran, emerged from a competitive primary. Early internal polling from May showed a close head-to-head matchup that tightened further after candidate profiles were presented, yet the seat’s partisan baseline and Wagner’s incumbency have kept the race from shifting into toss-up territory. No major late developments have altered the outlook in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$26,213End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, supported by the district’s Republican lean and her established record. Major forecasters rate the race as Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring Wagner at 73.5 percent. Wagner secured her party’s nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army veteran, emerged from a competitive primary. Early internal polling from May showed a close head-to-head matchup that tightened further after candidate profiles were presented, yet the seat’s partisan baseline and Wagner’s incumbency have kept the race from shifting into toss-up territory. No major late developments have altered the outlook in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,213End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, supported by the district’s Republican lean and her established record. Major forecasters rate the race as Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring Wagner at 73.5 percent. Wagner secured her party’s nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army veteran, emerged from a competitive primary. Early internal polling from May showed a close head-to-head matchup that tightened further after candidate profiles were presented, yet the seat’s partisan baseline and Wagner’s incumbency have kept the race from shifting into toss-up territory. No major late developments have altered the outlook in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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