Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by her consistent primary performance, substantial campaign resources, and the district’s established Republican lean in suburban St. Louis. Trader consensus at 70.5% for Wagner versus 30.5% for Democratic challenger Fred Wellman aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or likely Republican. Wellman, a military veteran who narrowly won his August primary, has highlighted Wagner’s personal wealth growth and low favorability in earlier polling, yet fundraising disparities and the absence of major late-breaking shifts have limited movement in the race. Ongoing redistricting litigation affects Missouri’s broader map but has not altered MO-02 dynamics in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-02 House Election Winner
MO-02 House Election Winner
$17,071 Vol.
$17,071 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ann Wagner (R)
76%
Fred Wellman (D)
25%
$17,071 Vol.
$17,071 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ann Wagner (R)
$6,693 Vol.
76%
Fred Wellman (D)
$10,379 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by her consistent primary performance, substantial campaign resources, and the district’s established Republican lean in suburban St. Louis. Trader consensus at 70.5% for Wagner versus 30.5% for Democratic challenger Fred Wellman aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or likely Republican. Wellman, a military veteran who narrowly won his August primary, has highlighted Wagner’s personal wealth growth and low favorability in earlier polling, yet fundraising disparities and the absence of major late-breaking shifts have limited movement in the race. Ongoing redistricting litigation affects Missouri’s broader map but has not altered MO-02 dynamics in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$17,071End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by her consistent primary performance, substantial campaign resources, and the district’s established Republican lean in suburban St. Louis. Trader consensus at 70.5% for Wagner versus 30.5% for Democratic challenger Fred Wellman aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or likely Republican. Wellman, a military veteran who narrowly won his August primary, has highlighted Wagner’s personal wealth growth and low favorability in earlier polling, yet fundraising disparities and the absence of major late-breaking shifts have limited movement in the race. Ongoing redistricting litigation affects Missouri’s broader map but has not altered MO-02 dynamics in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,071End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by her consistent primary performance, substantial campaign resources, and the district’s established Republican lean in suburban St. Louis. Trader consensus at 70.5% for Wagner versus 30.5% for Democratic challenger Fred Wellman aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or likely Republican. Wellman, a military veteran who narrowly won his August primary, has highlighted Wagner’s personal wealth growth and low favorability in earlier polling, yet fundraising disparities and the absence of major late-breaking shifts have limited movement in the race. Ongoing redistricting litigation affects Missouri’s broader map but has not altered MO-02 dynamics in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions