Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the seat’s consistent Republican lean and her primary performance. The district supported Donald Trump by roughly eight points in 2024 and delivered Wagner a 12-point victory that year. Independent race raters classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting limited polling movement and Wagner’s established fundraising edge. Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army officer who narrowly won his August 4 primary, faces structural headwinds in a suburban St. Louis area where generic ballot surveys and historical results favor the GOP. Ongoing redistricting litigation has introduced some uncertainty statewide but has not materially altered the district’s partisan baseline or Wagner’s frontrunner status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-02 House Election Winner
MO-02 House Election Winner
$27,344 Vol.
$27,344 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ann Wagner (R)
74%
Fred Wellman (D)
27%
$27,344 Vol.
$27,344 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ann Wagner (R)
$15,173 Vol.
74%
Fred Wellman (D)
$12,171 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the seat’s consistent Republican lean and her primary performance. The district supported Donald Trump by roughly eight points in 2024 and delivered Wagner a 12-point victory that year. Independent race raters classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting limited polling movement and Wagner’s established fundraising edge. Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army officer who narrowly won his August 4 primary, faces structural headwinds in a suburban St. Louis area where generic ballot surveys and historical results favor the GOP. Ongoing redistricting litigation has introduced some uncertainty statewide but has not materially altered the district’s partisan baseline or Wagner’s frontrunner status.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$27,344End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the seat’s consistent Republican lean and her primary performance. The district supported Donald Trump by roughly eight points in 2024 and delivered Wagner a 12-point victory that year. Independent race raters classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting limited polling movement and Wagner’s established fundraising edge. Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army officer who narrowly won his August 4 primary, faces structural headwinds in a suburban St. Louis area where generic ballot surveys and historical results favor the GOP. Ongoing redistricting litigation has introduced some uncertainty statewide but has not materially altered the district’s partisan baseline or Wagner’s frontrunner status.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,344End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the seat’s consistent Republican lean and her primary performance. The district supported Donald Trump by roughly eight points in 2024 and delivered Wagner a 12-point victory that year. Independent race raters classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting limited polling movement and Wagner’s established fundraising edge. Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army officer who narrowly won his August 4 primary, faces structural headwinds in a suburban St. Louis area where generic ballot surveys and historical results favor the GOP. Ongoing redistricting litigation has introduced some uncertainty statewide but has not materially altered the district’s partisan baseline or Wagner’s frontrunner status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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