Incumbent Bill Keating holds a commanding position in Massachusetts’s 9th Congressional District due to its consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Keating’s repeated general-election victories, most recently by double digits in 2024. The September 1 primaries reinforced this outlook, with Keating defeating a primary challenger by roughly 77-22 percent while Republican Tyler MacAllister advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring structural barriers for any Republican nominee. MacAllister, a local select board member, faces limited name recognition and fundraising relative to the incumbent. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Keating aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented national Republican wave, a late Keating-specific development, or turnout anomalies capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMA-09 House Election Winner
MA-09 House Election Winner
$23,264 Vol.
$23,264 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Bill Keating (D)
95%
Tyler MacAllister (R)
5%
$23,264 Vol.
$23,264 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Bill Keating (D)
$8,275 Vol.
95%
Tyler MacAllister (R)
$14,989 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bill Keating holds a commanding position in Massachusetts’s 9th Congressional District due to its consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Keating’s repeated general-election victories, most recently by double digits in 2024. The September 1 primaries reinforced this outlook, with Keating defeating a primary challenger by roughly 77-22 percent while Republican Tyler MacAllister advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring structural barriers for any Republican nominee. MacAllister, a local select board member, faces limited name recognition and fundraising relative to the incumbent. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Keating aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented national Republican wave, a late Keating-specific development, or turnout anomalies capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$23,264End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bill Keating holds a commanding position in Massachusetts’s 9th Congressional District due to its consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Keating’s repeated general-election victories, most recently by double digits in 2024. The September 1 primaries reinforced this outlook, with Keating defeating a primary challenger by roughly 77-22 percent while Republican Tyler MacAllister advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring structural barriers for any Republican nominee. MacAllister, a local select board member, faces limited name recognition and fundraising relative to the incumbent. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Keating aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented national Republican wave, a late Keating-specific development, or turnout anomalies capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,264End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Bill Keating holds a commanding position in Massachusetts’s 9th Congressional District due to its consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Keating’s repeated general-election victories, most recently by double digits in 2024. The September 1 primaries reinforced this outlook, with Keating defeating a primary challenger by roughly 77-22 percent while Republican Tyler MacAllister advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring structural barriers for any Republican nominee. MacAllister, a local select board member, faces limited name recognition and fundraising relative to the incumbent. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Keating aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented national Republican wave, a late Keating-specific development, or turnout anomalies capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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