Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell—over alleged mishandling of building renovation costs—prior to Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, balancing Trump's hawkish stance against political imperatives for a smooth Fed leadership transition. Recent catalysts include Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview doubling down on the investigation and threatening Powell's dismissal if he lingers on the Fed board beyond May 15 term end, yet facing pushback from key Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis, who vows to block Warsh absent probe closure to safeguard central bank independence. Warsh's disclosures of over $130 million in assets cleared minor hurdles, but the standoff persists ahead of next week's confirmation hearing and impending monetary policy shift toward potential rate cuts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell—over alleged mishandling of building renovation costs—prior to Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, balancing Trump's hawkish stance against political imperatives for a smooth Fed leadership transition. Recent catalysts include Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview doubling down on the investigation and threatening Powell's dismissal if he lingers on the Fed board beyond May 15 term end, yet facing pushback from key Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis, who vows to block Warsh absent probe closure to safeguard central bank independence. Warsh's disclosures of over $130 million in assets cleared minor hurdles, but the standoff persists ahead of next week's confirmation hearing and impending monetary policy shift toward potential rate cuts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$349End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell—over alleged mishandling of building renovation costs—prior to Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, balancing Trump's hawkish stance against political imperatives for a smooth Fed leadership transition. Recent catalysts include Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview doubling down on the investigation and threatening Powell's dismissal if he lingers on the Fed board beyond May 15 term end, yet facing pushback from key Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis, who vows to block Warsh absent probe closure to safeguard central bank independence. Warsh's disclosures of over $130 million in assets cleared minor hurdles, but the standoff persists ahead of next week's confirmation hearing and impending monetary policy shift toward potential rate cuts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$349End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell—over alleged mishandling of building renovation costs—prior to Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, balancing Trump's hawkish stance against political imperatives for a smooth Fed leadership transition. Recent catalysts include Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview doubling down on the investigation and threatening Powell's dismissal if he lingers on the Fed board beyond May 15 term end, yet facing pushback from key Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis, who vows to block Warsh absent probe closure to safeguard central bank independence. Warsh's disclosures of over $130 million in assets cleared minor hurdles, but the standoff persists ahead of next week's confirmation hearing and impending monetary policy shift toward potential rate cuts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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