The Department of Justice's announcement on April 24, 2026, to end its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation overruns has driven Polymarket's 100% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting trader consensus that President Trump fulfilled the precondition before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation. This pivotal move, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, resolved a key impasse created by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who conditioned his support on dropping the investigation following Warsh's April 21 confirmation hearing. With Powell's term expiring May 15, markets now price a smoother leadership transition, potentially accelerating expectations for policy shifts under Warsh amid cooling inflation and steady Fed funds rates around 4.75-5.00%. Tail risks include procedural reversals or Tillis reneging, though highly improbable given the probe's closure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,882 Vol.
$12,882 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$12,882 Vol.
$12,882 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Department of Justice's announcement on April 24, 2026, to end its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation overruns has driven Polymarket's 100% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting trader consensus that President Trump fulfilled the precondition before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation. This pivotal move, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, resolved a key impasse created by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who conditioned his support on dropping the investigation following Warsh's April 21 confirmation hearing. With Powell's term expiring May 15, markets now price a smoother leadership transition, potentially accelerating expectations for policy shifts under Warsh amid cooling inflation and steady Fed funds rates around 4.75-5.00%. Tail risks include procedural reversals or Tillis reneging, though highly improbable given the probe's closure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$12,882End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Department of Justice's announcement on April 24, 2026, to end its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation overruns has driven Polymarket's 100% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting trader consensus that President Trump fulfilled the precondition before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation. This pivotal move, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, resolved a key impasse created by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who conditioned his support on dropping the investigation following Warsh's April 21 confirmation hearing. With Powell's term expiring May 15, markets now price a smoother leadership transition, potentially accelerating expectations for policy shifts under Warsh amid cooling inflation and steady Fed funds rates around 4.75-5.00%. Tail risks include procedural reversals or Tillis reneging, though highly improbable given the probe's closure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,882End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The Department of Justice's announcement on April 24, 2026, to end its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation overruns has driven Polymarket's 100% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting trader consensus that President Trump fulfilled the precondition before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation. This pivotal move, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, resolved a key impasse created by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who conditioned his support on dropping the investigation following Warsh's April 21 confirmation hearing. With Powell's term expiring May 15, markets now price a smoother leadership transition, potentially accelerating expectations for policy shifts under Warsh amid cooling inflation and steady Fed funds rates around 4.75-5.00%. Tail risks include procedural reversals or Tillis reneging, though highly improbable given the probe's closure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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