Polymarket traders' consensus assigns a 67.5% implied probability to exactly one FOMC dissent at the April 28-29 meeting, reflecting divisions exposed in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8, where most officials eyed rate cuts amid oil shock employment risks from geopolitical tensions, while a minority flagged persistent inflation warranting hikes. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on 10.9% energy gains, bolstering hawks, yet low weekly jobless claims near 219,000 underpin a likely unanimous hold at 3.50-3.75% Fed funds. Recent precedents—three dissents in December 2025, two in January—elevate expectations for modest discord, amplified by Chair Powell's term ending post-meeting; watch April PCE data for final sentiment shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 66%
2 22%
3 6%
0 1.9%
$50,779 Vol.
$50,779 Vol.
0
2%
1
66%
2
25%
3
6%
4+
<1%
1 66%
2 22%
3 6%
0 1.9%
$50,779 Vol.
$50,779 Vol.
0
2%
1
66%
2
25%
3
6%
4+
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' consensus assigns a 67.5% implied probability to exactly one FOMC dissent at the April 28-29 meeting, reflecting divisions exposed in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8, where most officials eyed rate cuts amid oil shock employment risks from geopolitical tensions, while a minority flagged persistent inflation warranting hikes. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on 10.9% energy gains, bolstering hawks, yet low weekly jobless claims near 219,000 underpin a likely unanimous hold at 3.50-3.75% Fed funds. Recent precedents—three dissents in December 2025, two in January—elevate expectations for modest discord, amplified by Chair Powell's term ending post-meeting; watch April PCE data for final sentiment shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions