President-elect Donald Trump has not announced a nominee to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May 2026, leaving Kevin Warsh's confirmation prospects speculative despite his status as a top contender. Recent reports detail Warsh's interviews with Trump transition officials and his hawkish monetary policy views aligning with administration preferences for lower rates, driving trader interest. Senate Republicans' 53-47 majority favors confirmation if nominated, but legal hurdles limit pre-term replacement absent resignation. Key upcoming events include post-inauguration nominations in January 2025, Senate Finance Committee hearings, and floor votes, with historical precedents showing 90% confirmation rates for Fed Chairs amid partisan divides. Markets reflect uncertainty over timing and Powell's tenure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$407,969 Vol.
May 15, 2026
May 1
11%
May 15
51%
$407,969 Vol.
May 1
$277,444 Vol.
11%
May 15
$130,524 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President-elect Donald Trump has not announced a nominee to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May 2026, leaving Kevin Warsh's confirmation prospects speculative despite his status as a top contender. Recent reports detail Warsh's interviews with Trump transition officials and his hawkish monetary policy views aligning with administration preferences for lower rates, driving trader interest. Senate Republicans' 53-47 majority favors confirmation if nominated, but legal hurdles limit pre-term replacement absent resignation. Key upcoming events include post-inauguration nominations in January 2025, Senate Finance Committee hearings, and floor votes, with historical precedents showing 90% confirmation rates for Fed Chairs amid partisan divides. Markets reflect uncertainty over timing and Powell's tenure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$407,969End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President-elect Donald Trump has not announced a nominee to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May 2026, leaving Kevin Warsh's confirmation prospects speculative despite his status as a top contender. Recent reports detail Warsh's interviews with Trump transition officials and his hawkish monetary policy views aligning with administration preferences for lower rates, driving trader interest. Senate Republicans' 53-47 majority favors confirmation if nominated, but legal hurdles limit pre-term replacement absent resignation. Key upcoming events include post-inauguration nominations in January 2025, Senate Finance Committee hearings, and floor votes, with historical precedents showing 90% confirmation rates for Fed Chairs amid partisan divides. Markets reflect uncertainty over timing and Powell's tenure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$407,969End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President-elect Donald Trump has not announced a nominee to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May 2026, leaving Kevin Warsh's confirmation prospects speculative despite his status as a top contender. Recent reports detail Warsh's interviews with Trump transition officials and his hawkish monetary policy views aligning with administration preferences for lower rates, driving trader interest. Senate Republicans' 53-47 majority favors confirmation if nominated, but legal hurdles limit pre-term replacement absent resignation. Key upcoming events include post-inauguration nominations in January 2025, Senate Finance Committee hearings, and floor votes, with historical precedents showing 90% confirmation rates for Fed Chairs amid partisan divides. Markets reflect uncertainty over timing and Powell's tenure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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