Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings that would support incarceration before 2027, driving the 96.9% market-implied probability on “No.” As Federal Reserve Chair, Powell operates under institutional protections and high public scrutiny that make prosecution exceptionally rare absent extraordinary evidence of misconduct. Traders price in this low base rate alongside the absence of recent developments—such as regulatory actions or congressional probes—that could alter the trajectory. While tail risks like abrupt political shifts or unforeseen scandals remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting signals in current economic data, Fed communications, or filings, leaving the consensus firmly anchored in observable stability.