The Department of Justice’s recent decision not to reopen its criminal probe into former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—following the Fed inspector general’s September 2026 report finding no grounds for a criminal referral or administrative misconduct—underpins the 96.8% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. The earlier investigation, which centered on cost overruns exceeding $1 billion on the headquarters renovation and Powell’s congressional testimony, was closed in April after a federal judge found insufficient evidence of wrongdoing and improper motives. With Powell’s term as governor extending into 2028 but no active charges, trader consensus reflects the absence of viable legal pathways. Tail risks remain limited to hypothetical new probes triggered by the independent audit now underway, though recent official statements distinguish oversight lapses from criminal conduct.