Jerome Powell faces negligible risk of incarceration before 2027, as reflected in the 97.2% market-implied probability for “No.” No criminal investigations, indictments, or regulatory actions have targeted the Federal Reserve Chair, whose role centers on monetary policy decisions such as the federal funds rate and inflation targeting. Recent FOMC communications and labor-market data releases have reinforced his institutional standing without legal complications. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote, including unprecedented political interference or fabricated charges, though such developments would require extraordinary departures from established legal and governance norms. Traders price this outcome with high confidence given the absence of supporting evidence and Powell’s protected status through his term.