The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026, after a federal judge found prosecutors had produced essentially zero evidence of any crime and ruled the subpoenas pretextual pressure tied to interest-rate policy disputes, drives the 97% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. The probe, focused on Powell’s congressional testimony regarding cost overruns on the Fed’s headquarters renovation, was dropped without charges, consistent with the absence of any credible legal proceedings or convictions involving a sitting central bank leader. Institutional safeguards around the position, combined with the brief window remaining in 2026, reinforce trader consensus that jail time is improbable. Remote tail risks include an unanticipated new inquiry or political escalation, though current conditions offer little indication such developments are likely.