Absence of any criminal charges, indictments, or credible investigations against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underpins the 97.2% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Traders price in the strong institutional protections and legal precedents shielding central bank leadership from personal liability tied to monetary policy decisions, with no recent regulatory filings or enforcement actions signaling exposure. This consensus reflects the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets, where real capital stakes favor outcomes aligned with historical base rates for senior U.S. officials. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme political shifts, such as unprecedented congressional actions or novel legal interpretations post-election, though these would require substantial new developments to alter current odds materially.