Traders have priced a 92.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s steady 3.50%-3.75% target range maintained through three consecutive 2026 meetings amid resilient economic growth and inflation readings near 3.3%-3.8%. Recent data releases and central bank communications have reinforced expectations that monetary policy will remain on hold for the balance of the year, with futures markets showing minimal odds of a 25-basis-point move in either direction. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC gathering with updated projections and intervening inflation and employment reports that could alter the path if they signal faster progress toward the 2% target or unexpected labor-market softening.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWalang pagbabago 93%
25 bps na pagtaas 5.3%
25 bps na pagbaba 2.3%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$6,487,536 Vol.
$6,487,536 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
2%
Walang pagbabago
93%
25 bps na pagtaas
5%
50+ bps na pagtaas
<1%
Walang pagbabago 93%
25 bps na pagtaas 5.3%
25 bps na pagbaba 2.3%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$6,487,536 Vol.
$6,487,536 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
$712,911 Vol.
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
$630,118 Vol.
2%
Walang pagbabago
$822,025 Vol.
93%
25 bps na pagtaas
$3,576,133 Vol.
5%
50+ bps na pagtaas
$748,167 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders have priced a 92.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s steady 3.50%-3.75% target range maintained through three consecutive 2026 meetings amid resilient economic growth and inflation readings near 3.3%-3.8%. Recent data releases and central bank communications have reinforced expectations that monetary policy will remain on hold for the balance of the year, with futures markets showing minimal odds of a 25-basis-point move in either direction. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC gathering with updated projections and intervening inflation and employment reports that could alter the path if they signal faster progress toward the 2% target or unexpected labor-market softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$6,487,536Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders have priced a 92.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s steady 3.50%-3.75% target range maintained through three consecutive 2026 meetings amid resilient economic growth and inflation readings near 3.3%-3.8%. Recent data releases and central bank communications have reinforced expectations that monetary policy will remain on hold for the balance of the year, with futures markets showing minimal odds of a 25-basis-point move in either direction. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC gathering with updated projections and intervening inflation and employment reports that could alter the path if they signal faster progress toward the 2% target or unexpected labor-market softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$6,487,536Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced a 92.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s steady 3.50%-3.75% target range maintained through three consecutive 2026 meetings amid resilient economic growth and inflation readings near 3.3%-3.8%. Recent data releases and central bank communications have reinforced expectations that monetary policy will remain on hold for the balance of the year, with futures markets showing minimal odds of a 25-basis-point move in either direction. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC gathering with updated projections and intervening inflation and employment reports that could alter the path if they signal faster progress toward the 2% target or unexpected labor-market softening.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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