Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus that the current 3.50%-3.75% stance will hold amid resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation readings. Recent strong employment data and persistent price pressures, including potential upside risks tied to external factors, have reinforced expectations for a data-dependent pause following the June 16-17 decision. This pricing aligns with the shift away from an easing bias in recent communications and the broader view that further policy adjustments are unlikely until clearer disinflation or labor market softening emerges. Key swing factors include the June FOMC statement and any material shifts in incoming CPI or payroll figures that could alter the near-term rate path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWalang pagbabago 93%
25 bps na pagtaas 5.9%
25 bps na pagbaba 1.6%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$9,210,198 Vol.
$9,210,198 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
2%
Walang pagbabago
93%
25 bps na pagtaas
6%
50+ bps na pagtaas
<1%
Walang pagbabago 93%
25 bps na pagtaas 5.9%
25 bps na pagbaba 1.6%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps <1%
$9,210,198 Vol.
$9,210,198 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
$1,262,254 Vol.
1%
25 bps na pagbaba
$1,015,416 Vol.
2%
Walang pagbabago
$1,372,295 Vol.
93%
25 bps na pagtaas
$4,021,147 Vol.
6%
50+ bps na pagtaas
$1,540,145 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus that the current 3.50%-3.75% stance will hold amid resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation readings. Recent strong employment data and persistent price pressures, including potential upside risks tied to external factors, have reinforced expectations for a data-dependent pause following the June 16-17 decision. This pricing aligns with the shift away from an easing bias in recent communications and the broader view that further policy adjustments are unlikely until clearer disinflation or labor market softening emerges. Key swing factors include the June FOMC statement and any material shifts in incoming CPI or payroll figures that could alter the near-term rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$9,210,198Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus that the current 3.50%-3.75% stance will hold amid resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation readings. Recent strong employment data and persistent price pressures, including potential upside risks tied to external factors, have reinforced expectations for a data-dependent pause following the June 16-17 decision. This pricing aligns with the shift away from an easing bias in recent communications and the broader view that further policy adjustments are unlikely until clearer disinflation or labor market softening emerges. Key swing factors include the June FOMC statement and any material shifts in incoming CPI or payroll figures that could alter the near-term rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$9,210,198Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus that the current 3.50%-3.75% stance will hold amid resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation readings. Recent strong employment data and persistent price pressures, including potential upside risks tied to external factors, have reinforced expectations for a data-dependent pause following the June 16-17 decision. This pricing aligns with the shift away from an easing bias in recent communications and the broader view that further policy adjustments are unlikely until clearer disinflation or labor market softening emerges. Key swing factors include the June FOMC statement and any material shifts in incoming CPI or payroll figures that could alter the near-term rate path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong