Resilient U.S. labor market data and sticky inflation have kept Polymarket odds closely split for the December 2026 FOMC decision, with no change at 47.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 43.5%. August payrolls rose 162,000 while unemployment held at 4.1%, and July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, prompting several banks including UBS to forecast 25 basis point increases in both September and December. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tilt, evident in the June dot plot where nearly half of officials projected at least one hike by year-end, has reinforced expectations of tighter policy amid supply pressures and resilient demand. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 meeting outcome remain key swing factors that could shift the December path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNo change 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 5.3%
50+ bps increase 2.3%
$568,425 Vol.
$568,425 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
48%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 5.3%
50+ bps increase 2.3%
$568,425 Vol.
$568,425 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$92,643 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$144,128 Vol.
5%
No change
$101,362 Vol.
48%
25 bps increase
$139,605 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$90,687 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Resilient U.S. labor market data and sticky inflation have kept Polymarket odds closely split for the December 2026 FOMC decision, with no change at 47.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 43.5%. August payrolls rose 162,000 while unemployment held at 4.1%, and July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, prompting several banks including UBS to forecast 25 basis point increases in both September and December. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tilt, evident in the June dot plot where nearly half of officials projected at least one hike by year-end, has reinforced expectations of tighter policy amid supply pressures and resilient demand. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 meeting outcome remain key swing factors that could shift the December path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$568,425Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Resilient U.S. labor market data and sticky inflation have kept Polymarket odds closely split for the December 2026 FOMC decision, with no change at 47.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 43.5%. August payrolls rose 162,000 while unemployment held at 4.1%, and July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, prompting several banks including UBS to forecast 25 basis point increases in both September and December. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tilt, evident in the June dot plot where nearly half of officials projected at least one hike by year-end, has reinforced expectations of tighter policy amid supply pressures and resilient demand. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 meeting outcome remain key swing factors that could shift the December path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$568,425Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resilient U.S. labor market data and sticky inflation have kept Polymarket odds closely split for the December 2026 FOMC decision, with no change at 47.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 43.5%. August payrolls rose 162,000 while unemployment held at 4.1%, and July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, prompting several banks including UBS to forecast 25 basis point increases in both September and December. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tilt, evident in the June dot plot where nearly half of officials projected at least one hike by year-end, has reinforced expectations of tighter policy amid supply pressures and resilient demand. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 meeting outcome remain key swing factors that could shift the December path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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