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icon for Fed rate hike by...?
Pananalapi·Fomc

Fed rate hike by...?

icon for Fed rate hike by...?
Pananalapi·Fomc

Fed rate hike by...?

Oct 29

Dec 9

Oct 29

Dec 9

$154,138 Vol.

Dec 9, 2026
Polymarket

$154,138 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for June Meeting

June Meeting

$15,781 Vol.

1%

icon for July Meeting

July Meeting

$1,768 Vol.

6%

icon for September Meeting

September Meeting

$2,737 Vol.

12%

icon for October Meeting

October Meeting

$2,545 Vol.

24%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$154,138
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 29, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$154,138
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 29, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Fed rate hike by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 5 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "October Meeting" sa 24%, sinusundan ng "September Meeting" sa 12%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 24¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 24% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Fed rate hike by...?" ay naka-generate ng $154.1K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Mar 31, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Fed rate hike by...?," i-browse ang 5 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Fed rate hike by...?" ay "October Meeting" sa 24%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 24% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "September Meeting" sa 12%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Fed rate hike by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.