Traders are pricing in a low probability of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, with futures markets assigning virtually no chance to a move at the June 2026 FOMC meeting and under 10 percent odds for any easing this year. The primary driver remains elevated inflation, which rose further in April amid higher global energy prices tied to Middle East developments, pushing the target range to stay at 3.50–3.75 percent for a third straight meeting. Resilient labor-market data, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.3 percent and job gains steady but modest, have reinforced the committee’s data-dependent stance, as reflected in the latest Summary of Economic Projections showing a median 2026 funds-rate forecast around 3.4 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, May CPI and employment reports, and any further clarity on oil-supply risks that could shift the balance between inflation and growth concerns.