Recent FOMC action and projections anchor market-implied odds against near-term Fed rate cuts. On September 16, 2026, policymakers raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, the first hike since 2023, citing PCE inflation running at a projected 3.7 percent for 2026 and core at 3.4 percent. The updated dot plot shows a median funds rate of 4.1 percent through year-end and into 2027, with 16 of 19 participants expecting at least one additional hike by December. Solid GDP growth near 2.3 percent and unemployment at 4.1 percent support the hawkish stance, while inflation is not seen returning to the 2 percent target until 2029. Traders will focus on October 27–28 and December 8–9 meetings, plus upcoming CPI and employment data, for any signs of policy moderation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateStrong economic data and Fed hike reduce odds of January 2027 rate cut
January 2027 Meeting plunges to 11%39%
The combination of the Fed's September hike and robust economic indicators led to a steep decline in market pricing for a rate cut at the January 2027 meeting, with contract prices falling from 50% to 11%. This reflects a market consensus that cuts in early 2027 are unlikely.
Markets react to Fed rate hike with sharp decline in rate cut probabilities
December 2026 Meeting dips to 3%4%
Following the September 16 rate hike, market prices for rate cuts at the December 2026 and subsequent meetings dropped sharply, reflecting diminished expectations for easing in the near term. This was evident in the December 2026 meeting contract price falling from 7% to 3% and similar declines in other meetings.
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