Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by March's robust nonfarm payrolls gain of 178,000—far exceeding expectations of 59,000—and unemployment dipping to 4.3%. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, signaling persistent above-target inflation amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, as noted in Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasizing a "wait and see" policy stance in a resilient labor market. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC could influence sentiment, though current pricing reflects limited near-term adjustment expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed Decision in June?
Fed Decision in June?
No change 90%
25 bps decrease 9%
25 bps increase 1.6%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,854,431 Vol.
$5,854,431 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
90%
25 bps increase
2%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 90%
25 bps decrease 9%
25 bps increase 1.6%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,854,431 Vol.
$5,854,431 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,631,866 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$902,935 Vol.
9%
No change
$1,217,809 Vol.
90%
25 bps increase
$1,141,443 Vol.
2%
50+ bps increase
$960,440 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by March's robust nonfarm payrolls gain of 178,000—far exceeding expectations of 59,000—and unemployment dipping to 4.3%. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, signaling persistent above-target inflation amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, as noted in Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasizing a "wait and see" policy stance in a resilient labor market. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC could influence sentiment, though current pricing reflects limited near-term adjustment expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$5,854,431End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by March's robust nonfarm payrolls gain of 178,000—far exceeding expectations of 59,000—and unemployment dipping to 4.3%. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, signaling persistent above-target inflation amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, as noted in Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasizing a "wait and see" policy stance in a resilient labor market. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC could influence sentiment, though current pricing reflects limited near-term adjustment expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,854,431End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by March's robust nonfarm payrolls gain of 178,000—far exceeding expectations of 59,000—and unemployment dipping to 4.3%. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, signaling persistent above-target inflation amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, as noted in Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasizing a "wait and see" policy stance in a resilient labor market. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC could influence sentiment, though current pricing reflects limited near-term adjustment expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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