Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by the resilient U.S. labor market and Chair Powell's recent remarks signaling patience amid energy price shocks. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding expectations—while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and wage growth cooled to 3.5% year-over-year, supporting the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with the Fed's March dot plot projecting just one 2026 cut later. Oil spikes above $110 complicate easing, per Powell's Harvard speech. Upside risks include softer April jobs or CPI data due April 10, potentially nudging cut odds higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed Decision in June?
Fed Decision in June?
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 7%
25 bps increase 1.8%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,698,467 Vol.
$5,698,467 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
2%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 7%
25 bps increase 1.8%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,698,467 Vol.
$5,698,467 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,611,164 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$861,417 Vol.
7%
No change
$1,178,971 Vol.
91%
25 bps increase
$1,116,274 Vol.
2%
50+ bps increase
$931,197 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by the resilient U.S. labor market and Chair Powell's recent remarks signaling patience amid energy price shocks. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding expectations—while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and wage growth cooled to 3.5% year-over-year, supporting the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with the Fed's March dot plot projecting just one 2026 cut later. Oil spikes above $110 complicate easing, per Powell's Harvard speech. Upside risks include softer April jobs or CPI data due April 10, potentially nudging cut odds higher.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$5,698,467End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by the resilient U.S. labor market and Chair Powell's recent remarks signaling patience amid energy price shocks. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding expectations—while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and wage growth cooled to 3.5% year-over-year, supporting the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with the Fed's March dot plot projecting just one 2026 cut later. Oil spikes above $110 complicate easing, per Powell's Harvard speech. Upside risks include softer April jobs or CPI data due April 10, potentially nudging cut odds higher.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,698,467End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by the resilient U.S. labor market and Chair Powell's recent remarks signaling patience amid energy price shocks. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding expectations—while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and wage growth cooled to 3.5% year-over-year, supporting the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with the Fed's March dot plot projecting just one 2026 cut later. Oil spikes above $110 complicate easing, per Powell's Harvard speech. Upside risks include softer April jobs or CPI data due April 10, potentially nudging cut odds higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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