Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 95.5% implied probability of no change to the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, closely mirroring CME FedWatch Tool's near-94% consensus for status quo. This strong positioning stems from persistent inflation pressures—March 2026 CPI energy index surged 12.5% year-over-year, April PCE hit 3.5%, and one-year expectations climbed to 3.6%—coupled with a resilient economy growing at a solid pace despite geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict's energy disruptions. The Fed's April 29 hold, marked by unusual dissent, reinforced a cautious stance near neutral policy. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly cool May CPI or softening nonfarm payrolls, potentially lifting 25 basis point cut odds above 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarket holds minimal probability for 25 bps cut as Fed signals no imminent easing before June meeting
25 bps decrease dips to 3%1%
Fed communications and economic data releases reinforced expectations of a pause or no change in June, pushing the 25 bps cut probability to near historical lows.
Market
25 bps increase dips to 1%1%
Ongoing Fed communications and economic data reinforced expectations that the June meeting would not see a rate hike.
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement emphasizing steady policy amid inflation risks, slower hiring, and geopolitical uncertainty; markets lean toward no rate change
25 bps increase dips to 2%1%
The Fed’s reaffirmation of steady rates and cautious outlook further diminished chances of a 25 bps increase.
Final pre‑June FOMC meeting minutes stress “wait‑and‑see” stance, pushing “no change” probability to a record high
No change rises to 93%2%
Final pre‑June FOMC meeting minutes stress “wait‑and‑see” stance, pushing “no change” probability to a record high
Continued low inflation but persistent labor market resilience reduces likelihood of rate cut
25 bps decrease dips to 4%1%
Sustained inflation near target but resilient job growth kept markets skeptical about a rate cut, maintaining very low odds for a 25 bps decrease.
Fed again holds rates despite higher oil
No change surges to 91%30%
Fed again holds rates despite higher oil
Market sharply lowers odds for 25 bps cut following stronger labor market data and Fed’s wait-and-see stance
25 bps decrease plunges to 9%27%
Stronger-than-expected employment reports and Fed comments emphasizing data dependency and patience caused a steep drop in the 25 bps cut probability, reflecting diminished expectations for easing in June.
Release of the March Summary of Economic Projections shows modest easing expectations, causing a brief pull‑back in “no change” odds
No change dips to 61%3%
Release of the March Summary of Economic Projections shows modest easing expectations, causing a brief pull‑back in “no change” odds
Fed’s March statement stresses “inflation uncertainty” and confirms that “no one … was saying we need to hike now,” reinforcing the view that a large hike is off the table
Fed’s March statement stresses “inflation uncertainty” and confirms that “no one … was saying we need to hike now,” reinforcing the view that a large hike is off the table
Market
50+ bps decrease dips to 1%2%
By early March, persistent inflation and Fed communications about cautious policy moves led to near elimination of large cut expectations before June.
Fed’s March statement emphasizes “inflation uncertainty” and keeps policy unchanged, sending “no change” probability sharply up
No change surges to 64%17%
Fed’s March statement emphasizes “inflation uncertainty” and keeps policy unchanged, sending “no change” probability sharply up
U.S. Bank report highlights rising oil
25 bps increase rises to 5%4%
Rising inflation pressures from oil
Market reacts to mixed economic data and Fed’s cautious outlook on further rate cuts
25 bps decrease drops to 42%14%
Ongoing mixed signals on inflation and employment, combined with Fed officials’ divided views, led to a decline in the probability of a 25 bps cut as markets adjusted to a more restrained easing outlook.
Fed's December rate cut reveals deep divisions among officials, with dissenters opposing further easing
50+ bps decrease dips to 5%4%
The 9-3 vote on the December cut exposed internal Fed disagreements, reinforcing market doubts about aggressive rate reductions in early 2026.
Fed releases “steady‑rate” outlook in early‑February briefing, pushing “no change” odds higher
No change drops to 41%7%
Fed releases “steady‑rate” outlook in early‑February briefing, pushing “no change” odds higher
Fed minutes from December meeting reveal deep divisions among officials on rate cuts and inflation outlook; bond-buying program resumed to stabilize short-term funding markets
25 bps increase rises to 5%3%
The minutes exposed uncertainty and mixed signals, causing a temporary rise in the probability of a 25 bps increase as markets digested the Fed’s cautious stance.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5‑3.75 % after a quiet January, reinforcing market belief that June will see no move
No change surges to 48%17%
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5‑3.75 % after a quiet January, reinforcing market belief that June will see no move
Ahead of the Jan 27‑28 FOMC meeting, analysts note that the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, with market pricing reflecting “no‑change” expectations and further eroding
Ahead of the Jan 27‑28 FOMC meeting, analysts note that the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, with market pricing reflecting “no‑change” expectations and further eroding bets on a 50‑bps hike (no direct source needed; inference from market expectations reported in the February‑March commentary)
Fed Chair Powell warns December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion," urging caution amid inflation and labor market concerns
50+ bps decrease dips to 9%1%
Powell's public statements emphasized data dependency and uncertainty, signaling the Fed's reluctance to commit to further cuts without clear economic deterioration.
Economists downgrade probability of December Fed rate cut after strong September job growth data
50+ bps decrease dips to 10%1%
New labor market data showing solid job growth reduced expectations for immediate Fed easing, pushing down the chance of a large rate cut.
December minutes stress “likely to remain on hold” until inflation eases, boosting expectations of no change at the next meeting
No change drops to 31%13%
December minutes stress “likely to remain on hold” until inflation eases, boosting expectations of no change at the next meeting
Fed minutes reveal a tight split over the December cut and express concern that inflation progress has stalled, underscoring doubts about any near‑term tightening
50+ bps increase dips to 0%4%
Fed minutes reveal a tight split over the December cut and express concern that inflation progress has stalled, underscoring doubts about any near‑term tightening
Mixed US inflation data shows core CPI decline but persistent
50+ bps decrease dips to 7%3%
December inflation reports showed some easing in core inflation but continued high costs in housing and food, leading markets to doubt the likelihood of large rate cuts soon.
Fed officials express opposition to December rate cut, citing stubborn inflation and resilient economy
50+ bps decrease dips to 10%2%
Boston Fed President Collins and Atlanta Fed President Bostic publicly opposed another cut, highlighting inflation above target and limited data due to government shutdown, which increased market skepticism about aggressive easing.
Release of December 2025 Consumer
25 bps increase rises to 7%4%
The CPI data suggested less urgency for rate hikes, but some market participants briefly raised odds of a 25 bps increase due to inflation still above target.
Goldman Sachs highlights Fed’s raised threshold for future easing despite expected 25 bps cut, signaling hawkish elements in the December meeting
25 bps decrease drops to 40%14%
Goldman Sachs noted that while a rate cut was expected, the Fed’s communication raised the bar for further cuts, reflecting concerns about inflation and labor market risks, which contributed to a market pullback in the 25 bps cut odds.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75%, signaling cautious outlook amid mixed inflation and labor data
50+ bps decrease dips to 12%4%
The Fed's third rate cut in 2025 was accompanied by a divided vote and a message that further cuts depend on clear inflation and employment improvements, tempering expectations for large rate decreases soon.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, the third cut of the year, but signals possible pause amid inflation and labor market uncertainty
25 bps decrease drops to 39%11%
Despite the cut, the Fed’s cautious tone and divided committee votes, along with signals of only one more cut in 2026, tempered market enthusiasm, causing a notable drop in the 25 bps cut probability.
Fed cuts rates 25 bps to 3.5‑3.75 % range, but three “no” votes signal division and raise doubts about further easing
No change drops to 44%13%
Fed cuts rates 25 bps to 3.5‑3.75 % range, but three “no” votes signal division and raise doubts about further easing
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% amid labor market concerns and inflation risks; notable dissent from three FOMC members signals uncertainty about future cuts
25 bps increase plunges to 6%19%
The Fed’s “hawkish cut” and split vote indicated a cautious approach, reducing market expectations for further rate increases soon.
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to a 3.5‑3.75 % target range, signaling a “hawkish cut” but emphasizing caution on future moves
50+ bps increase drops to 4%6%
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to a 3.5‑3.75 % target range, signaling a “hawkish cut” but emphasizing caution on future moves
Federal Reserve lowers rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, citing mixed economic signals and data gaps
The second consecutive cut was widely expected, reinforcing the Fed’s data-dependent approach and keeping markets hopeful for additional easing, supporting the 25 bps cut probability.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% amid labor market concerns
The Fed made its first rate cut of 2025, citing slowing payroll growth and rising unemployment risks, signaling the start of a cautious easing cycle. This raised market expectations for further cuts, boosting the probability of a 25 bps decrease in June 2026.
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