Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was not arrested by the March 31, 2026, deadline, driving trader consensus to 100% on "No" as the event window closed without incident. A Department of Justice criminal probe launched in January 2026, probing Powell's prior congressional testimony on a $2.5 billion Fed building renovation, generated early speculation but stalled after a federal judge quashed grand jury subpoenas on March 13, blocking further investigative steps. No charges were filed, reflecting institutional safeguards around the independent Fed chair role and lack of probable cause for detention. While post-deadline revelations of an unreported arrest before 11:59 PM ET could theoretically prompt resolution review, such scenarios remain implausible absent verified evidence from DOJ or law enforcement.