Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, has cemented market-implied odds at 94% for three consecutive Federal Reserve pauses through the July meeting. The April FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with officials noting inflation remains elevated and the economic outlook uncertain, while futures markets price in no easing this year. This strong consensus reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and recent communications prioritizing inflation risks over growth signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting with an updated dot plot, where softer inflation or labor data could introduce modest probability shifts toward a later cut.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Other 4.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.9%
$52,072 거래량
$52,072 거래량
2026.07.29
Pause–Pause–Pause
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Other 4.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.9%
$52,072 거래량
$52,072 거래량
2026.07.29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$3,504 거래량
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,373 거래량
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,558 거래량
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,874 거래량
1%
Other
$1,777 거래량
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, has cemented market-implied odds at 94% for three consecutive Federal Reserve pauses through the July meeting. The April FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with officials noting inflation remains elevated and the economic outlook uncertain, while futures markets price in no easing this year. This strong consensus reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and recent communications prioritizing inflation risks over growth signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting with an updated dot plot, where softer inflation or labor data could introduce modest probability shifts toward a later cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
거래량
$52,072종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, has cemented market-implied odds at 94% for three consecutive Federal Reserve pauses through the July meeting. The April FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with officials noting inflation remains elevated and the economic outlook uncertain, while futures markets price in no easing this year. This strong consensus reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and recent communications prioritizing inflation risks over growth signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting with an updated dot plot, where softer inflation or labor data could introduce modest probability shifts toward a later cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$52,072종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, has cemented market-implied odds at 94% for three consecutive Federal Reserve pauses through the July meeting. The April FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with officials noting inflation remains elevated and the economic outlook uncertain, while futures markets price in no easing this year. This strong consensus reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and recent communications prioritizing inflation risks over growth signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting with an updated dot plot, where softer inflation or labor data could introduce modest probability shifts toward a later cut.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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