Elevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a sharp rise in energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3%, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April meeting. This data trajectory, alongside hawkish dissents at the April FOMC and market-implied expectations for zero policy shifts through year-end, underpins the 97.3% trader consensus for holds across the March, April, and June meetings. The June 16-17 gathering, which includes an updated dot plot, along with the May CPI release on June 10, represent the key near-term catalysts that could sustain or modestly adjust this positioning if incoming figures show sustained disinflation or labor-market softening.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트동결–동결–동결 97.4%
동결–동결–인하 2.5%
기타 <1%
$1,229,682 거래량
$1,229,682 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
97%
동결–동결–인하
2%
기타
1%
동결–동결–동결 97.4%
동결–동결–인하 2.5%
기타 <1%
$1,229,682 거래량
$1,229,682 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
$132,788 거래량
97%
동결–동결–인하
$79,662 거래량
2%
기타
$271,890 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a sharp rise in energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3%, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April meeting. This data trajectory, alongside hawkish dissents at the April FOMC and market-implied expectations for zero policy shifts through year-end, underpins the 97.3% trader consensus for holds across the March, April, and June meetings. The June 16-17 gathering, which includes an updated dot plot, along with the May CPI release on June 10, represent the key near-term catalysts that could sustain or modestly adjust this positioning if incoming figures show sustained disinflation or labor-market softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$1,229,682종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a sharp rise in energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3%, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April meeting. This data trajectory, alongside hawkish dissents at the April FOMC and market-implied expectations for zero policy shifts through year-end, underpins the 97.3% trader consensus for holds across the March, April, and June meetings. The June 16-17 gathering, which includes an updated dot plot, along with the May CPI release on June 10, represent the key near-term catalysts that could sustain or modestly adjust this positioning if incoming figures show sustained disinflation or labor-market softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$1,229,682종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a sharp rise in energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3%, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April meeting. This data trajectory, alongside hawkish dissents at the April FOMC and market-implied expectations for zero policy shifts through year-end, underpins the 97.3% trader consensus for holds across the March, April, and June meetings. The June 16-17 gathering, which includes an updated dot plot, along with the May CPI release on June 10, represent the key near-term catalysts that could sustain or modestly adjust this positioning if incoming figures show sustained disinflation or labor-market softening.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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