Market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 99.6% for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target amid resilient labor market data, prompting policymakers to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50–3.75% range at the March and April gatherings. Recent CPI prints and employment reports have reinforced trader consensus that no policy adjustment is warranted through mid-year, consistent with forward-looking signals from futures markets and economist surveys showing cuts deferred well into 2027. The June 16-17 decision, the first under the new chair, carries the same hold bias given the absence of material disinflation. A sharp, unexpected decline in core inflation or material softening in payrolls could still open the door to a June cut, though current data trajectories make such a shift improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트동결–동결–동결 99.6%
동결–동결–인하 <1%
기타 <1%
$2,306,109 거래량
$2,306,109 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
100%
동결–동결–인하
<1%
기타
<1%
동결–동결–동결 99.6%
동결–동결–인하 <1%
기타 <1%
$2,306,109 거래량
$2,306,109 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
$488,916 거래량
100%
동결–동결–인하
$621,938 거래량
<1%
기타
$449,912 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 99.6% for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target amid resilient labor market data, prompting policymakers to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50–3.75% range at the March and April gatherings. Recent CPI prints and employment reports have reinforced trader consensus that no policy adjustment is warranted through mid-year, consistent with forward-looking signals from futures markets and economist surveys showing cuts deferred well into 2027. The June 16-17 decision, the first under the new chair, carries the same hold bias given the absence of material disinflation. A sharp, unexpected decline in core inflation or material softening in payrolls could still open the door to a June cut, though current data trajectories make such a shift improbable.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$2,306,109종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 99.6% for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target amid resilient labor market data, prompting policymakers to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50–3.75% range at the March and April gatherings. Recent CPI prints and employment reports have reinforced trader consensus that no policy adjustment is warranted through mid-year, consistent with forward-looking signals from futures markets and economist surveys showing cuts deferred well into 2027. The June 16-17 decision, the first under the new chair, carries the same hold bias given the absence of material disinflation. A sharp, unexpected decline in core inflation or material softening in payrolls could still open the door to a June cut, though current data trajectories make such a shift improbable.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$2,306,109종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause at 99.6% for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target amid resilient labor market data, prompting policymakers to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50–3.75% range at the March and April gatherings. Recent CPI prints and employment reports have reinforced trader consensus that no policy adjustment is warranted through mid-year, consistent with forward-looking signals from futures markets and economist surveys showing cuts deferred well into 2027. The June 16-17 decision, the first under the new chair, carries the same hold bias given the absence of material disinflation. A sharp, unexpected decline in core inflation or material softening in payrolls could still open the door to a June cut, though current data trajectories make such a shift improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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