Polymarket traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast policy amid resurgent inflation pressures. The March FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, followed by the same in late April, as March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—driven by energy cost spikes from Middle East tensions. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks highlighted elevated near-term inflation expectations at 3.5% PCE and deemed the current stance appropriate, with resilient nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 in March) supporting no-cut consensus. Upside risks persist from oil disruptions, though a sharp cooldown in April CPI data due May 12 could challenge this positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트동결–동결–동결 96%
동결–동결–인하 3.5%
기타 1.4%
$1,037,711 거래량
$1,037,711 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
96%
동결–동결–인하
3%
기타
1%
동결–동결–동결 96%
동결–동결–인하 3.5%
기타 1.4%
$1,037,711 거래량
$1,037,711 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
$46,655 거래량
96%
동결–동결–인하
$22,766 거래량
3%
기타
$222,949 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast policy amid resurgent inflation pressures. The March FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, followed by the same in late April, as March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—driven by energy cost spikes from Middle East tensions. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks highlighted elevated near-term inflation expectations at 3.5% PCE and deemed the current stance appropriate, with resilient nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 in March) supporting no-cut consensus. Upside risks persist from oil disruptions, though a sharp cooldown in April CPI data due May 12 could challenge this positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$1,037,711종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast policy amid resurgent inflation pressures. The March FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, followed by the same in late April, as March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—driven by energy cost spikes from Middle East tensions. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks highlighted elevated near-term inflation expectations at 3.5% PCE and deemed the current stance appropriate, with resilient nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 in March) supporting no-cut consensus. Upside risks persist from oil disruptions, though a sharp cooldown in April CPI data due May 12 could challenge this positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$1,037,711종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast policy amid resurgent inflation pressures. The March FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, followed by the same in late April, as March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—driven by energy cost spikes from Middle East tensions. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks highlighted elevated near-term inflation expectations at 3.5% PCE and deemed the current stance appropriate, with resilient nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 in March) supporting no-cut consensus. Upside risks persist from oil disruptions, though a sharp cooldown in April CPI data due May 12 could challenge this positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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