Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and resilient economic growth. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly rise, the hottest since mid-2024, while unemployment held steady at 4.3% amid falling initial jobless claims to 207,000. March 17-18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed policymakers' growing openness to hikes if inflation reaccelerates, tempering cut expectations to just one 25 basis point reduction for all of 2026 per dot plots. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the immediate test, with CME FedWatch showing over 95% odds of a pause.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
신규
신규
2026.07.29
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
신규
신규
2026.07.29
Cut–Pause–Pause
$829 거래량
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$676 거래량
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$730 거래량
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$756 거래량
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,380 거래량
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$936 거래량
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$545 거래량
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$739 거래량
3%
Other
$906 거래량
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and resilient economic growth. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly rise, the hottest since mid-2024, while unemployment held steady at 4.3% amid falling initial jobless claims to 207,000. March 17-18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed policymakers' growing openness to hikes if inflation reaccelerates, tempering cut expectations to just one 25 basis point reduction for all of 2026 per dot plots. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the immediate test, with CME FedWatch showing over 95% odds of a pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
거래량
$7,495종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and resilient economic growth. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly rise, the hottest since mid-2024, while unemployment held steady at 4.3% amid falling initial jobless claims to 207,000. March 17-18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed policymakers' growing openness to hikes if inflation reaccelerates, tempering cut expectations to just one 25 basis point reduction for all of 2026 per dot plots. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the immediate test, with CME FedWatch showing over 95% odds of a pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$7,495종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and resilient economic growth. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly rise, the hottest since mid-2024, while unemployment held steady at 4.3% amid falling initial jobless claims to 207,000. March 17-18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed policymakers' growing openness to hikes if inflation reaccelerates, tempering cut expectations to just one 25 basis point reduction for all of 2026 per dot plots. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the immediate test, with CME FedWatch showing over 95% odds of a pause.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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