Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient economic data underscoring no urgency for rate cuts. The Fed held rates steady at its April 28-29 meeting amid rising inflation pressures—March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024—and notable internal dissent signaling hawkish caution in Chair Powell's final press conference. Yesterday's April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating forecasts and prompting upward revisions to prior months, bolstering labor market strength. With core PCE nowcasting near 3.7%, traders price in sustained restrictive policy; watch April CPI release on May 12 ahead of the June 16-17 meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.9%
Other 4.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$48,055 거래량
$48,055 거래량
2026.07.29
Pause–Pause–Pause
85%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.9%
Other 4.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$48,055 거래량
$48,055 거래량
2026.07.29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,119 거래량
85%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,548 거래량
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,505 거래량
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,333 거래량
<1%
Other
$1,565 거래량
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient economic data underscoring no urgency for rate cuts. The Fed held rates steady at its April 28-29 meeting amid rising inflation pressures—March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024—and notable internal dissent signaling hawkish caution in Chair Powell's final press conference. Yesterday's April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating forecasts and prompting upward revisions to prior months, bolstering labor market strength. With core PCE nowcasting near 3.7%, traders price in sustained restrictive policy; watch April CPI release on May 12 ahead of the June 16-17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
거래량
$48,055종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient economic data underscoring no urgency for rate cuts. The Fed held rates steady at its April 28-29 meeting amid rising inflation pressures—March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024—and notable internal dissent signaling hawkish caution in Chair Powell's final press conference. Yesterday's April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating forecasts and prompting upward revisions to prior months, bolstering labor market strength. With core PCE nowcasting near 3.7%, traders price in sustained restrictive policy; watch April CPI release on May 12 ahead of the June 16-17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$48,055종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient economic data underscoring no urgency for rate cuts. The Fed held rates steady at its April 28-29 meeting amid rising inflation pressures—March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024—and notable internal dissent signaling hawkish caution in Chair Powell's final press conference. Yesterday's April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating forecasts and prompting upward revisions to prior months, bolstering labor market strength. With core PCE nowcasting near 3.7%, traders price in sustained restrictive policy; watch April CPI release on May 12 ahead of the June 16-17 meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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