Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, anchors the 93% market-implied odds for no rate changes across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April on an 8-4 vote, with futures markets assigning roughly 98% probability to another pause at the June 16-17 gathering. This pricing reflects trader consensus that persistent inflation above the 2% target outweighs any near-term easing signals, consistent with the latest dot plot showing limited cuts through year-end. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections at the June meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$53,936 거래량
$53,936 거래량
2026.07.29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$53,936 거래량
$53,936 거래량
2026.07.29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,557 거래량
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 거래량
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 거래량
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,886 거래량
1%
Other
$1,967 거래량
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, anchors the 93% market-implied odds for no rate changes across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April on an 8-4 vote, with futures markets assigning roughly 98% probability to another pause at the June 16-17 gathering. This pricing reflects trader consensus that persistent inflation above the 2% target outweighs any near-term easing signals, consistent with the latest dot plot showing limited cuts through year-end. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections at the June meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
거래량
$53,936종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, anchors the 93% market-implied odds for no rate changes across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April on an 8-4 vote, with futures markets assigning roughly 98% probability to another pause at the June 16-17 gathering. This pricing reflects trader consensus that persistent inflation above the 2% target outweighs any near-term easing signals, consistent with the latest dot plot showing limited cuts through year-end. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections at the June meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$53,936종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, anchors the 93% market-implied odds for no rate changes across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April on an 8-4 vote, with futures markets assigning roughly 98% probability to another pause at the June 16-17 gathering. This pricing reflects trader consensus that persistent inflation above the 2% target outweighs any near-term easing signals, consistent with the latest dot plot showing limited cuts through year-end. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections at the June meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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