Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications have reinforced expectations for steady policy at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures, including war-related energy price effects, combined with a solid May employment report showing firm labor market conditions, have shifted trader focus toward holding the federal funds rate in its current 3.5-3.75 percent target range. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June is anticipated to remove prior easing language, aligning with economist surveys indicating rates likely remain unchanged through year-end. This backdrop explains the dominant 73.5 percent probability assigned to no change, while modest odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect concerns over sustained price pressures and the smaller likelihood of easing stems from limited downside risks in growth or employment data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 7.6%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$276,843 거래량
$276,843 거래량
2026.09.16
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 7.6%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$276,843 거래량
$276,843 거래량
2026.09.16
50+ bps decrease
$49,494 거래량
2%
25 bps decrease
$51,653 거래량
8%
No change
$80,366 거래량
74%
25 bps increase
$54,685 거래량
16%
50+ bps increase
$40,645 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications have reinforced expectations for steady policy at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures, including war-related energy price effects, combined with a solid May employment report showing firm labor market conditions, have shifted trader focus toward holding the federal funds rate in its current 3.5-3.75 percent target range. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June is anticipated to remove prior easing language, aligning with economist surveys indicating rates likely remain unchanged through year-end. This backdrop explains the dominant 73.5 percent probability assigned to no change, while modest odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect concerns over sustained price pressures and the smaller likelihood of easing stems from limited downside risks in growth or employment data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
거래량
$276,843종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications have reinforced expectations for steady policy at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures, including war-related energy price effects, combined with a solid May employment report showing firm labor market conditions, have shifted trader focus toward holding the federal funds rate in its current 3.5-3.75 percent target range. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June is anticipated to remove prior easing language, aligning with economist surveys indicating rates likely remain unchanged through year-end. This backdrop explains the dominant 73.5 percent probability assigned to no change, while modest odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect concerns over sustained price pressures and the smaller likelihood of easing stems from limited downside risks in growth or employment data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$276,843종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications have reinforced expectations for steady policy at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures, including war-related energy price effects, combined with a solid May employment report showing firm labor market conditions, have shifted trader focus toward holding the federal funds rate in its current 3.5-3.75 percent target range. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June is anticipated to remove prior easing language, aligning with economist surveys indicating rates likely remain unchanged through year-end. This backdrop explains the dominant 73.5 percent probability assigned to no change, while modest odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect concerns over sustained price pressures and the smaller likelihood of easing stems from limited downside risks in growth or employment data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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