Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East developments, while the May jobs report showed 172,000 gains and unemployment steady at 4.3%, shifting trader consensus away from near-term easing. This aligns with recent central bank communications signaling a hold through much of 2026 amid upside inflation risks. A clearer disinflation path in upcoming May CPI data or labor market softening ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC could introduce volatility, though current fundamentals support the dominant no-change positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 94%
25bp 인상 4.9%
25bp 인하 1.6%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$8,305,352 거래량
$8,305,352 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
1%
25bp 인하
2%
변경 없음
94%
25bp 인상
5%
50bp 이상 인상
<1%
변경 없음 94%
25bp 인상 4.9%
25bp 인하 1.6%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$8,305,352 거래량
$8,305,352 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
$1,067,876 거래량
1%
25bp 인하
$857,442 거래량
2%
변경 없음
$1,101,684 거래량
94%
25bp 인상
$3,884,442 거래량
5%
50bp 이상 인상
$1,394,114 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East developments, while the May jobs report showed 172,000 gains and unemployment steady at 4.3%, shifting trader consensus away from near-term easing. This aligns with recent central bank communications signaling a hold through much of 2026 amid upside inflation risks. A clearer disinflation path in upcoming May CPI data or labor market softening ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC could introduce volatility, though current fundamentals support the dominant no-change positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
거래량
$8,305,352종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East developments, while the May jobs report showed 172,000 gains and unemployment steady at 4.3%, shifting trader consensus away from near-term easing. This aligns with recent central bank communications signaling a hold through much of 2026 amid upside inflation risks. A clearer disinflation path in upcoming May CPI data or labor market softening ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC could introduce volatility, though current fundamentals support the dominant no-change positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$8,305,352종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East developments, while the May jobs report showed 172,000 gains and unemployment steady at 4.3%, shifting trader consensus away from near-term easing. This aligns with recent central bank communications signaling a hold through much of 2026 amid upside inflation risks. A clearer disinflation path in upcoming May CPI data or labor market softening ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC could introduce volatility, though current fundamentals support the dominant no-change positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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