Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—reversing February's decline—and hotter-than-expected March CPI rising to 330.21 points amid war-related oil shocks elevating inflation risks. March 17–18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed officials' growing openness to rate hikes while holding the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, underscoring a data-dependent stance amid sticky price pressures. Smaller odds for a 25 basis point cut (13.5%) stem from balanced labor market signals, with hike probabilities (4.0% for 25 bps, 1.3% for 50+ bps) capturing tail risks from persistent inflation; traders eye the April 29–30 meeting and May CPI for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 78%
25bp 인하 14%
25bp 인상 4.0%
50bp 이상 인하 3.5%
$3,650,706 거래량
$3,650,706 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
3%
25bp 인하
14%
변경 없음
78%
25bp 인상
4%
50bp 이상 인상
1%
변경 없음 78%
25bp 인하 14%
25bp 인상 4.0%
50bp 이상 인하 3.5%
$3,650,706 거래량
$3,650,706 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
$162,097 거래량
3%
25bp 인하
$111,948 거래량
14%
변경 없음
$171,951 거래량
78%
25bp 인상
$3,016,750 거래량
4%
50bp 이상 인상
$187,960 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—reversing February's decline—and hotter-than-expected March CPI rising to 330.21 points amid war-related oil shocks elevating inflation risks. March 17–18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed officials' growing openness to rate hikes while holding the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, underscoring a data-dependent stance amid sticky price pressures. Smaller odds for a 25 basis point cut (13.5%) stem from balanced labor market signals, with hike probabilities (4.0% for 25 bps, 1.3% for 50+ bps) capturing tail risks from persistent inflation; traders eye the April 29–30 meeting and May CPI for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
거래량
$3,650,706종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—reversing February's decline—and hotter-than-expected March CPI rising to 330.21 points amid war-related oil shocks elevating inflation risks. March 17–18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed officials' growing openness to rate hikes while holding the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, underscoring a data-dependent stance amid sticky price pressures. Smaller odds for a 25 basis point cut (13.5%) stem from balanced labor market signals, with hike probabilities (4.0% for 25 bps, 1.3% for 50+ bps) capturing tail risks from persistent inflation; traders eye the April 29–30 meeting and May CPI for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$3,650,706종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—reversing February's decline—and hotter-than-expected March CPI rising to 330.21 points amid war-related oil shocks elevating inflation risks. March 17–18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed officials' growing openness to rate hikes while holding the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, underscoring a data-dependent stance amid sticky price pressures. Smaller odds for a 25 basis point cut (13.5%) stem from balanced labor market signals, with hike probabilities (4.0% for 25 bps, 1.3% for 50+ bps) capturing tail risks from persistent inflation; traders eye the April 29–30 meeting and May CPI for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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