Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—alongside a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate have anchored trader consensus around no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75 percent and markets pricing only a 2.5 percent implied probability of a 25 basis point cut, the dominant positioning reflects resilient price pressures from energy costs and a labor market that has not cooled enough to support near-term easing. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and subsequent May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could alter these odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or employment data softens materially.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 94%
25bp 인상 3.8%
25bp 인하 2.6%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$5,578,181 거래량
$5,578,181 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
1%
25bp 인하
3%
변경 없음
94%
25bp 인상
4%
50bp 이상 인상
<1%
변경 없음 94%
25bp 인상 3.8%
25bp 인하 2.6%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$5,578,181 거래량
$5,578,181 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
$548,506 거래량
1%
25bp 인하
$422,704 거래량
3%
변경 없음
$656,189 거래량
94%
25bp 인상
$3,406,914 거래량
4%
50bp 이상 인상
$545,310 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—alongside a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate have anchored trader consensus around no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75 percent and markets pricing only a 2.5 percent implied probability of a 25 basis point cut, the dominant positioning reflects resilient price pressures from energy costs and a labor market that has not cooled enough to support near-term easing. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and subsequent May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could alter these odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or employment data softens materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
거래량
$5,578,181종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—alongside a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate have anchored trader consensus around no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75 percent and markets pricing only a 2.5 percent implied probability of a 25 basis point cut, the dominant positioning reflects resilient price pressures from energy costs and a labor market that has not cooled enough to support near-term easing. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and subsequent May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could alter these odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or employment data softens materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$5,578,181종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—alongside a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate have anchored trader consensus around no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75 percent and markets pricing only a 2.5 percent implied probability of a 25 basis point cut, the dominant positioning reflects resilient price pressures from energy costs and a labor market that has not cooled enough to support near-term easing. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and subsequent May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could alter these odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or employment data softens materially.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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