Trader sentiment for the June-July-September FOMC meetings remains evenly split across potential rate paths like Cut-Pause-Pause and Pause-Pause-Pause, each at 49.5% implied probability, underscoring deep uncertainty in the federal funds rate trajectory. The April 28-29 FOMC held rates steady amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since 2024—offset by a resilient labor market with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. Fed funds futures via CME FedWatch price 97% odds of no change in June, yet divergent broker views (holds vs. mid-year cuts) and competing inflation persistence versus softening growth signals keep paths contested. Watch April CPI release on May 12 for pivotal swings ahead of June 16-17.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Cut–Cut–Pause 34%
Cut–Pause–Cut 31%
Other 31%
신규
신규
2026.09.16
Cut–Pause–Pause
18%
Cut–Pause–Cut
31%
Cut–Cut–Pause
34%
Cut–Cut–Cut
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
31%
Pause–Cut–Pause
26%
Pause–Cut–Cut
26%
Other
31%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Cut–Cut–Pause 34%
Cut–Pause–Cut 31%
Other 31%
신규
신규
2026.09.16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$0 거래량
18%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$0 거래량
31%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$0 거래량
34%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$7 거래량
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$0 거래량
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$0 거래량
31%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$0 거래량
26%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$0 거래량
26%
Other
$0 거래량
31%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment for the June-July-September FOMC meetings remains evenly split across potential rate paths like Cut-Pause-Pause and Pause-Pause-Pause, each at 49.5% implied probability, underscoring deep uncertainty in the federal funds rate trajectory. The April 28-29 FOMC held rates steady amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since 2024—offset by a resilient labor market with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. Fed funds futures via CME FedWatch price 97% odds of no change in June, yet divergent broker views (holds vs. mid-year cuts) and competing inflation persistence versus softening growth signals keep paths contested. Watch April CPI release on May 12 for pivotal swings ahead of June 16-17.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
거래량
$7종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment for the June-July-September FOMC meetings remains evenly split across potential rate paths like Cut-Pause-Pause and Pause-Pause-Pause, each at 49.5% implied probability, underscoring deep uncertainty in the federal funds rate trajectory. The April 28-29 FOMC held rates steady amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since 2024—offset by a resilient labor market with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. Fed funds futures via CME FedWatch price 97% odds of no change in June, yet divergent broker views (holds vs. mid-year cuts) and competing inflation persistence versus softening growth signals keep paths contested. Watch April CPI release on May 12 for pivotal swings ahead of June 16-17.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$7종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the June-July-September FOMC meetings remains evenly split across potential rate paths like Cut-Pause-Pause and Pause-Pause-Pause, each at 49.5% implied probability, underscoring deep uncertainty in the federal funds rate trajectory. The April 28-29 FOMC held rates steady amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since 2024—offset by a resilient labor market with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. Fed funds futures via CME FedWatch price 97% odds of no change in June, yet divergent broker views (holds vs. mid-year cuts) and competing inflation persistence versus softening growth signals keep paths contested. Watch April CPI release on May 12 for pivotal swings ahead of June 16-17.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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