Persistent May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, anchors trader consensus around the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 66.5% implied probability for the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains 3.50%-3.75%, with futures and prediction markets reflecting limited scope for cuts this year and rising odds of later hikes as the Fed under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh adopts a data-dependent stance. April FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and potential policy firming needs, while firm payrolls reinforce the pause-through-summer baseline ahead of the June decision and updated dot plot.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 70%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.5%
신규
신규
2026.09.16
Cut–Pause–Pause
5%
Cut–Pause–Cut
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
69%
Pause–Pause–Cut
19%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
12%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 70%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.5%
신규
신규
2026.09.16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$181 거래량
5%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 거래량
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 거래량
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 거래량
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$895 거래량
69%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 거래량
19%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 거래량
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 거래량
12%
Other
$169 거래량
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, anchors trader consensus around the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 66.5% implied probability for the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains 3.50%-3.75%, with futures and prediction markets reflecting limited scope for cuts this year and rising odds of later hikes as the Fed under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh adopts a data-dependent stance. April FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and potential policy firming needs, while firm payrolls reinforce the pause-through-summer baseline ahead of the June decision and updated dot plot.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
거래량
$2,252종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, anchors trader consensus around the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 66.5% implied probability for the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains 3.50%-3.75%, with futures and prediction markets reflecting limited scope for cuts this year and rising odds of later hikes as the Fed under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh adopts a data-dependent stance. April FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and potential policy firming needs, while firm payrolls reinforce the pause-through-summer baseline ahead of the June decision and updated dot plot.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$2,252종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, anchors trader consensus around the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 66.5% implied probability for the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains 3.50%-3.75%, with futures and prediction markets reflecting limited scope for cuts this year and rising odds of later hikes as the Fed under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh adopts a data-dependent stance. April FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and potential policy firming needs, while firm payrolls reinforce the pause-through-summer baseline ahead of the June decision and updated dot plot.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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