Elevated May 2026 CPI readings, which rose to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance and reduced expectations for near-term easing. With the June 16-17 FOMC meeting just days away and the latest inflation print underscoring persistent pressures above the 2% target, trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause path through September. Labor market data showing subdued job gains and stable unemployment further support holding the policy rate steady, while forward-looking projections from recent FOMC communications indicate only gradual convergence toward target inflation later in the year. Upcoming catalysts include today’s CPI release and the September meeting, where any sustained moderation in headline and core measures could begin to shift the market-implied rate path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Cut–Pause–Cut 4.6%
신규
신규
2026.09.16
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
5%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
24%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
25%
Other
23%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Cut–Pause–Cut 4.6%
신규
신규
2026.09.16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$139 거래량
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 거래량
5%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 거래량
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 거래량
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$895 거래량
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 거래량
24%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 거래량
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 거래량
25%
Other
$169 거래량
23%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI readings, which rose to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance and reduced expectations for near-term easing. With the June 16-17 FOMC meeting just days away and the latest inflation print underscoring persistent pressures above the 2% target, trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause path through September. Labor market data showing subdued job gains and stable unemployment further support holding the policy rate steady, while forward-looking projections from recent FOMC communications indicate only gradual convergence toward target inflation later in the year. Upcoming catalysts include today’s CPI release and the September meeting, where any sustained moderation in headline and core measures could begin to shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
거래량
$2,210종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI readings, which rose to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance and reduced expectations for near-term easing. With the June 16-17 FOMC meeting just days away and the latest inflation print underscoring persistent pressures above the 2% target, trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause path through September. Labor market data showing subdued job gains and stable unemployment further support holding the policy rate steady, while forward-looking projections from recent FOMC communications indicate only gradual convergence toward target inflation later in the year. Upcoming catalysts include today’s CPI release and the September meeting, where any sustained moderation in headline and core measures could begin to shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$2,210종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI readings, which rose to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance and reduced expectations for near-term easing. With the June 16-17 FOMC meeting just days away and the latest inflation print underscoring persistent pressures above the 2% target, trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause path through September. Labor market data showing subdued job gains and stable unemployment further support holding the policy rate steady, while forward-looking projections from recent FOMC communications indicate only gradual convergence toward target inflation later in the year. Upcoming catalysts include today’s CPI release and the September meeting, where any sustained moderation in headline and core measures could begin to shift the market-implied rate path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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