**Elevated inflation pressures from Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, have driven strong market expectations for a September rate hike, positioning "Other" as the clear leader at 78% while relegating Pause–Pause–Pause to 19.5%.** June and July FOMC meetings both resulted in holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range, with the July vote splitting 9-3 amid three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Updated June dot-plot projections lifted the 2026 median endpoint to 3.8%, reflecting higher PCE inflation forecasts near 3.6% and a stable labor market. As of mid-September 2026, SOFR overnight index swaps price a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, consistent with recent hot CPI prints and Warsh’s emphasis on price stability. This path makes any sequence involving a September cut or three consecutive pauses unlikely, explaining the near-zero odds on Pause–Pause–Cut and the dominance of “Other,” which captures hike-inclusive outcomes. Trader capital in the prediction market aggregates these data-driven signals into the current implied probabilities ahead of the September decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,428 Vol.
$864,428 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
78%
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,428 Vol.
$864,428 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$332,706 Vol.
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,198 Vol.
<1%
Other
$373,647 Vol.
78%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation pressures from Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, have driven strong market expectations for a September rate hike, positioning "Other" as the clear leader at 78% while relegating Pause–Pause–Pause to 19.5%.**
June and July FOMC meetings both resulted in holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range, with the July vote splitting 9-3 amid three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Updated June dot-plot projections lifted the 2026 median endpoint to 3.8%, reflecting higher PCE inflation forecasts near 3.6% and a stable labor market. As of mid-September 2026, SOFR overnight index swaps price a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, consistent with recent hot CPI prints and Warsh’s emphasis on price stability. This path makes any sequence involving a September cut or three consecutive pauses unlikely, explaining the near-zero odds on Pause–Pause–Cut and the dominance of “Other,” which captures hike-inclusive outcomes. Trader capital in the prediction market aggregates these data-driven signals into the current implied probabilities ahead of the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$864,428End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation pressures from Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, have driven strong market expectations for a September rate hike, positioning "Other" as the clear leader at 78% while relegating Pause–Pause–Pause to 19.5%.**
June and July FOMC meetings both resulted in holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range, with the July vote splitting 9-3 amid three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Updated June dot-plot projections lifted the 2026 median endpoint to 3.8%, reflecting higher PCE inflation forecasts near 3.6% and a stable labor market. As of mid-September 2026, SOFR overnight index swaps price a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, consistent with recent hot CPI prints and Warsh’s emphasis on price stability. This path makes any sequence involving a September cut or three consecutive pauses unlikely, explaining the near-zero odds on Pause–Pause–Cut and the dominance of “Other,” which captures hike-inclusive outcomes. Trader capital in the prediction market aggregates these data-driven signals into the current implied probabilities ahead of the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$864,428End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation pressures from Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, have driven strong market expectations for a September rate hike, positioning "Other" as the clear leader at 78% while relegating Pause–Pause–Pause to 19.5%.** June and July FOMC meetings both resulted in holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range, with the July vote splitting 9-3 amid three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Updated June dot-plot projections lifted the 2026 median endpoint to 3.8%, reflecting higher PCE inflation forecasts near 3.6% and a stable labor market. As of mid-September 2026, SOFR overnight index swaps price a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, consistent with recent hot CPI prints and Warsh’s emphasis on price stability. This path makes any sequence involving a September cut or three consecutive pauses unlikely, explaining the near-zero odds on Pause–Pause–Cut and the dominance of “Other,” which captures hike-inclusive outcomes. Trader capital in the prediction market aggregates these data-driven signals into the current implied probabilities ahead of the September decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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