Elevated inflation persisting above the Fed's 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, has anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. Both decisions featured holds, with the July vote splitting 9-3 as three regional presidents dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic expansion, resilient labor markets, and strong productivity growth have supported the pause stance to date, yet market-implied odds heavily favor a September hike as the dominant "other" outcome. Traders are pricing in the upcoming September 15–16 meeting—with its dot plot and fresh data on PCE inflation and growth—as the key catalyst that could shift the rate path from repeated pauses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$869,747 Vol.
$869,747 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
78%
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$869,747 Vol.
$869,747 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$337,290 Vol.
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,261 Vol.
<1%
Other
$374,320 Vol.
78%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation persisting above the Fed's 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, has anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. Both decisions featured holds, with the July vote splitting 9-3 as three regional presidents dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic expansion, resilient labor markets, and strong productivity growth have supported the pause stance to date, yet market-implied odds heavily favor a September hike as the dominant "other" outcome. Traders are pricing in the upcoming September 15–16 meeting—with its dot plot and fresh data on PCE inflation and growth—as the key catalyst that could shift the rate path from repeated pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$869,747End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation persisting above the Fed's 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, has anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. Both decisions featured holds, with the July vote splitting 9-3 as three regional presidents dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic expansion, resilient labor markets, and strong productivity growth have supported the pause stance to date, yet market-implied odds heavily favor a September hike as the dominant "other" outcome. Traders are pricing in the upcoming September 15–16 meeting—with its dot plot and fresh data on PCE inflation and growth—as the key catalyst that could shift the rate path from repeated pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$869,747End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation persisting above the Fed's 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, has anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. Both decisions featured holds, with the July vote splitting 9-3 as three regional presidents dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic expansion, resilient labor markets, and strong productivity growth have supported the pause stance to date, yet market-implied odds heavily favor a September hike as the dominant "other" outcome. Traders are pricing in the upcoming September 15–16 meeting—with its dot plot and fresh data on PCE inflation and growth—as the key catalyst that could shift the rate path from repeated pauses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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