Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest since 2023—driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% and no cuts implemented in 2026, the 77.5% market-implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings reflects concerns that inflation remains above the 2% target. Solid economic expansion and a stable labor market further support holding rates, consistent with April meeting minutes and analyst views of limited near-term easing. The June 16-17 decision, which includes updated projections, represents the next key catalyst that could influence these odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 17%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
5%
Cut–Pause–Cut
7%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
24%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
8%
Other
17%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 17%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$181 ปริมาณ
5%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 ปริมาณ
7%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 ปริมาณ
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 ปริมาณ
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$920 ปริมาณ
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 ปริมาณ
24%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 ปริมาณ
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 ปริมาณ
8%
Other
$169 ปริมาณ
17%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest since 2023—driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% and no cuts implemented in 2026, the 77.5% market-implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings reflects concerns that inflation remains above the 2% target. Solid economic expansion and a stable labor market further support holding rates, consistent with April meeting minutes and analyst views of limited near-term easing. The June 16-17 decision, which includes updated projections, represents the next key catalyst that could influence these odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,277วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest since 2023—driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% and no cuts implemented in 2026, the 77.5% market-implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings reflects concerns that inflation remains above the 2% target. Solid economic expansion and a stable labor market further support holding rates, consistent with April meeting minutes and analyst views of limited near-term easing. The June 16-17 decision, which includes updated projections, represents the next key catalyst that could influence these odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,277วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest since 2023—driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% and no cuts implemented in 2026, the 77.5% market-implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings reflects concerns that inflation remains above the 2% target. Solid economic expansion and a stable labor market further support holding rates, consistent with April meeting minutes and analyst views of limited near-term easing. The June 16-17 decision, which includes updated projections, represents the next key catalyst that could influence these odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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