Recent hotter-than-expected May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year and core at 2.9%, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%, this supports the 74% implied probability of Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September decisions, as markets price out near-term easing and assign only modest odds to cuts later in the sequence. Firm labor conditions and Fed communications stressing data dependence reinforce the hold consensus, while upcoming June employment and inflation releases represent the next potential catalysts for any repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 74%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
74%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
4%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 74%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$286 Wol.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$441 Wol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 Wol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$172 Wol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$920 Wol.
74%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 Wol.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Wol.
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Wol.
4%
Other
$169 Wol.
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year and core at 2.9%, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%, this supports the 74% implied probability of Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September decisions, as markets price out near-term easing and assign only modest odds to cuts later in the sequence. Firm labor conditions and Fed communications stressing data dependence reinforce the hold consensus, while upcoming June employment and inflation releases represent the next potential catalysts for any repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,626Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year and core at 2.9%, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%, this supports the 74% implied probability of Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September decisions, as markets price out near-term easing and assign only modest odds to cuts later in the sequence. Firm labor conditions and Fed communications stressing data dependence reinforce the hold consensus, while upcoming June employment and inflation releases represent the next potential catalysts for any repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$2,626Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year and core at 2.9%, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%, this supports the 74% implied probability of Pause-Pause-Pause across the June, July, and September decisions, as markets price out near-term easing and assign only modest odds to cuts later in the sequence. Firm labor conditions and Fed communications stressing data dependence reinforce the hold consensus, while upcoming June employment and inflation releases represent the next potential catalysts for any repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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