Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy price surges—has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy, driving the 72.5% market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. Resilient labor conditions, including unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll gains, alongside core inflation at 2.8%, support the Federal Reserve’s patient stance and higher-for-longer path. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term easing versus the March 2026 dot plot’s median projection of roughly one 25 basis point cut for the full year. The May CPI release on June 10 and upcoming employment figures remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities if they signal faster disinflation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 9%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4%
Cut–Pause–Pause 3.6%
신규
신규
2026.09.16
Cut–Pause–Pause
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 9%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4%
Cut–Pause–Pause 3.6%
신규
신규
2026.09.16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 거래량
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 거래량
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$172 거래량
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$131 거래량
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$375 거래량
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$163 거래량
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 거래량
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 거래량
3%
Other
$122 거래량
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy price surges—has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy, driving the 72.5% market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. Resilient labor conditions, including unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll gains, alongside core inflation at 2.8%, support the Federal Reserve’s patient stance and higher-for-longer path. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term easing versus the March 2026 dot plot’s median projection of roughly one 25 basis point cut for the full year. The May CPI release on June 10 and upcoming employment figures remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities if they signal faster disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
거래량
$1,455종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy price surges—has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy, driving the 72.5% market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. Resilient labor conditions, including unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll gains, alongside core inflation at 2.8%, support the Federal Reserve’s patient stance and higher-for-longer path. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term easing versus the March 2026 dot plot’s median projection of roughly one 25 basis point cut for the full year. The May CPI release on June 10 and upcoming employment figures remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities if they signal faster disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$1,455종료일
2026.09.16마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy price surges—has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy, driving the 72.5% market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. Resilient labor conditions, including unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll gains, alongside core inflation at 2.8%, support the Federal Reserve’s patient stance and higher-for-longer path. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term easing versus the March 2026 dot plot’s median projection of roughly one 25 basis point cut for the full year. The May CPI release on June 10 and upcoming employment figures remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities if they signal faster disinflation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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