Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the 433-435k range as of April 30, 2026, per Parcl Labs Sales Price Index (median price per square foot multiplied by 2,000 sq ft of median home size), driven by the platform's timely release confirming stability after March's tepid 0.1% month-over-month growth. Supporting factors include Redfin's March median sale price of $436,412 (up 1.1% year-over-year) and NAR's $408,800 existing-home median (up 1.4% YoY), amid 6.1% 30-year fixed mortgage rates, 4.1 months' inventory, and existing sales at a sluggish 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Elevated affordability pressures and low supply cap volatility, with scant realistic scenarios—like anomalous late-April transactions or data revisions—now capable of dislodging this near-certain positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will the median home value in the US be on April 30?
What will the median home value in the US be on April 30?
433 - 435k 100.0%
<429k <1%
429 - 431k <1%
431 - 433k <1%
$7,613 Vol.
$7,613 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<429k
No
429 - 431k
No
431 - 433k
No
433 - 435k
Yes
435 - 437k
No
437 - 439k
No
439 - 441k
No
>441k
No
433 - 435k 100.0%
<429k <1%
429 - 431k <1%
431 - 433k <1%
$7,613 Vol.
$7,613 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<429k
$1,614 Vol.
No
429 - 431k
$1,010 Vol.
No
431 - 433k
$578 Vol.
No
433 - 435k
$1,357 Vol.
Yes
435 - 437k
$827 Vol.
No
437 - 439k
$1,184 Vol.
No
439 - 441k
$504 Vol.
No
>441k
$539 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the 433-435k range as of April 30, 2026, per Parcl Labs Sales Price Index (median price per square foot multiplied by 2,000 sq ft of median home size), driven by the platform's timely release confirming stability after March's tepid 0.1% month-over-month growth. Supporting factors include Redfin's March median sale price of $436,412 (up 1.1% year-over-year) and NAR's $408,800 existing-home median (up 1.4% YoY), amid 6.1% 30-year fixed mortgage rates, 4.1 months' inventory, and existing sales at a sluggish 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Elevated affordability pressures and low supply cap volatility, with scant realistic scenarios—like anomalous late-April transactions or data revisions—now capable of dislodging this near-certain positioning.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$7,613End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the 433-435k range as of April 30, 2026, per Parcl Labs Sales Price Index (median price per square foot multiplied by 2,000 sq ft of median home size), driven by the platform's timely release confirming stability after March's tepid 0.1% month-over-month growth. Supporting factors include Redfin's March median sale price of $436,412 (up 1.1% year-over-year) and NAR's $408,800 existing-home median (up 1.4% YoY), amid 6.1% 30-year fixed mortgage rates, 4.1 months' inventory, and existing sales at a sluggish 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Elevated affordability pressures and low supply cap volatility, with scant realistic scenarios—like anomalous late-April transactions or data revisions—now capable of dislodging this near-certain positioning.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
Volume
$7,613End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the 433-435k range as of April 30, 2026, per Parcl Labs Sales Price Index (median price per square foot multiplied by 2,000 sq ft of median home size), driven by the platform's timely release confirming stability after March's tepid 0.1% month-over-month growth. Supporting factors include Redfin's March median sale price of $436,412 (up 1.1% year-over-year) and NAR's $408,800 existing-home median (up 1.4% YoY), amid 6.1% 30-year fixed mortgage rates, 4.1 months' inventory, and existing sales at a sluggish 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Elevated affordability pressures and low supply cap volatility, with scant realistic scenarios—like anomalous late-April transactions or data revisions—now capable of dislodging this near-certain positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions