Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 25-26 meeting, driven by the central bank's March 26 release showing core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above its 2% target—and core-core inflation at 2.7%, alongside January meeting minutes revealing board members' calls for further tightening amid yen weakness and wage momentum. No-change odds at 34% reflect caution over February headline CPI dipping to 1.3% and Middle East tensions elevating oil import costs, potentially complicating the inflation-growth balance Governor Ueda highlighted post-March hold. Upcoming wage negotiations and March CPI data will be pivotal ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated25 bps increase 64%
No change 34%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$222,470 Vol.
$222,470 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Decrease rates
1%
No change
34%
25 bps increase
64%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 64%
No change 34%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$222,470 Vol.
$222,470 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Decrease rates
$67,372 Vol.
1%
No change
$40,352 Vol.
34%
25 bps increase
$53,111 Vol.
64%
50+ bps increase
$61,635 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 25-26 meeting, driven by the central bank's March 26 release showing core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above its 2% target—and core-core inflation at 2.7%, alongside January meeting minutes revealing board members' calls for further tightening amid yen weakness and wage momentum. No-change odds at 34% reflect caution over February headline CPI dipping to 1.3% and Middle East tensions elevating oil import costs, potentially complicating the inflation-growth balance Governor Ueda highlighted post-March hold. Upcoming wage negotiations and March CPI data will be pivotal ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$222,470End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 25-26 meeting, driven by the central bank's March 26 release showing core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above its 2% target—and core-core inflation at 2.7%, alongside January meeting minutes revealing board members' calls for further tightening amid yen weakness and wage momentum. No-change odds at 34% reflect caution over February headline CPI dipping to 1.3% and Middle East tensions elevating oil import costs, potentially complicating the inflation-growth balance Governor Ueda highlighted post-March hold. Upcoming wage negotiations and March CPI data will be pivotal ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$222,470End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 25-26 meeting, driven by the central bank's March 26 release showing core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above its 2% target—and core-core inflation at 2.7%, alongside January meeting minutes revealing board members' calls for further tightening amid yen weakness and wage momentum. No-change odds at 34% reflect caution over February headline CPI dipping to 1.3% and Middle East tensions elevating oil import costs, potentially complicating the inflation-growth balance Governor Ueda highlighted post-March hold. Upcoming wage negotiations and March CPI data will be pivotal ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions