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Bank of Japan Decision in April?

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Bank of Japan Decision in April?

25 bps increase 69%

No change 29%

50+ bps increase <1%

Decrease rates <1%

Polymarket

$221,622 Vol.

25 bps increase 69%

No change 29%

50+ bps increase <1%

Decrease rates <1%

Polymarket

$221,622 Vol.

Decrease rates

$67,275 Vol.

1%

No change

$40,017 Vol.

29%

25 bps increase

$52,792 Vol.

69%

50+ bps increase

$61,538 Vol.

1%

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to a 25 basis points Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, reflecting hawkish forward guidance from the March 19 hold at 0.75% amid firm underlying inflation dynamics. Governor Ueda emphasized sustained price pressures, with the BoJ's trend gauge showing February core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above the 2% target—bolstered by yen depreciation to around 159 per USD and oil price surges from Iran conflict risks. Soft headline CPI at 1.3% has lifted no-change odds to 29%, tempering larger hikes below 1%, while upcoming wage data and JGB yield rises to multi-decade highs near 2.4% on the 10-year signal potential for policy normalization.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to a 25 basis points Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, reflecting hawkish forward guidance from the March 19 hold at 0.75% amid firm underlying inflation dynamics. Governor Ueda emphasized sustained price pressures, with the BoJ's trend gauge showing February core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above the 2% target—bolstered by yen depreciation to around 159 per USD and oil price surges from Iran conflict risks. Soft headline CPI at 1.3% has lifted no-change odds to 29%, tempering larger hikes below 1%, while upcoming wage data and JGB yield rises to multi-decade highs near 2.4% on the 10-year signal potential for policy normalization.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to a 25 basis points Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, reflecting hawkish forward guidance from the March 19 hold at 0.75% amid firm underlying inflation dynamics. Governor Ueda emphasized sustained price pressures, with the BoJ's trend gauge showing February core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above the 2% target—bolstered by yen depreciation to around 159 per USD and oil price surges from Iran conflict risks. Soft headline CPI at 1.3% has lifted no-change odds to 29%, tempering larger hikes below 1%, while upcoming wage data and JGB yield rises to multi-decade highs near 2.4% on the 10-year signal potential for policy normalization.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to a 25 basis points Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, reflecting hawkish forward guidance from the March 19 hold at 0.75% amid firm underlying inflation dynamics. Governor Ueda emphasized sustained price pressures, with the BoJ's trend gauge showing February core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above the 2% target—bolstered by yen depreciation to around 159 per USD and oil price surges from Iran conflict risks. Soft headline CPI at 1.3% has lifted no-change odds to 29%, tempering larger hikes below 1%, while upcoming wage data and JGB yield rises to multi-decade highs near 2.4% on the 10-year signal potential for policy normalization.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of Japan Decision in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25 bps increase" at 69%, followed by "No change" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bank of Japan Decision in April?" has generated $221.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bank of Japan Decision in April?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bank of Japan Decision in April?" is "25 bps increase" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No change" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bank of Japan Decision in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.