Polymarket traders price a 69% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 25-26 meeting, reflecting sustained wage momentum with major unions securing 5.26% increases—the third straight year above 5%—and sticky core inflation despite temporary softening from higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions. The BOJ's March 19 decision to hold at 0.75% included hawkish signals from Governor Ueda affirming further normalization if economic forecasts hold, bolstered by the central bank's March 27 upward revision to its neutral rate estimate, signaling room for tightening. No-change odds at 29% capture caution over yen weakness near 160 per dollar and geopolitical risks to growth, with larger hikes below 1% due to gradualism. Key April catalysts include fresh CPI and business surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated25 bps increase 69%
No change 30%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$222,102 Vol.
$222,102 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Decrease rates
1%
No change
30%
25 bps increase
69%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 69%
No change 30%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$222,102 Vol.
$222,102 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Decrease rates
$67,365 Vol.
1%
No change
$40,226 Vol.
30%
25 bps increase
$52,883 Vol.
69%
50+ bps increase
$61,628 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 69% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 25-26 meeting, reflecting sustained wage momentum with major unions securing 5.26% increases—the third straight year above 5%—and sticky core inflation despite temporary softening from higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions. The BOJ's March 19 decision to hold at 0.75% included hawkish signals from Governor Ueda affirming further normalization if economic forecasts hold, bolstered by the central bank's March 27 upward revision to its neutral rate estimate, signaling room for tightening. No-change odds at 29% capture caution over yen weakness near 160 per dollar and geopolitical risks to growth, with larger hikes below 1% due to gradualism. Key April catalysts include fresh CPI and business surveys.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$222,102End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 69% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 25-26 meeting, reflecting sustained wage momentum with major unions securing 5.26% increases—the third straight year above 5%—and sticky core inflation despite temporary softening from higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions. The BOJ's March 19 decision to hold at 0.75% included hawkish signals from Governor Ueda affirming further normalization if economic forecasts hold, bolstered by the central bank's March 27 upward revision to its neutral rate estimate, signaling room for tightening. No-change odds at 29% capture caution over yen weakness near 160 per dollar and geopolitical risks to growth, with larger hikes below 1% due to gradualism. Key April catalysts include fresh CPI and business surveys.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$222,102End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 69% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 25-26 meeting, reflecting sustained wage momentum with major unions securing 5.26% increases—the third straight year above 5%—and sticky core inflation despite temporary softening from higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions. The BOJ's March 19 decision to hold at 0.75% included hawkish signals from Governor Ueda affirming further normalization if economic forecasts hold, bolstered by the central bank's March 27 upward revision to its neutral rate estimate, signaling room for tightening. No-change odds at 29% capture caution over yen weakness near 160 per dollar and geopolitical risks to growth, with larger hikes below 1% due to gradualism. Key April catalysts include fresh CPI and business surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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