Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to a 25 basis points Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, reflecting hawkish forward guidance from the March 19 hold at 0.75% amid firm underlying inflation dynamics. Governor Ueda emphasized sustained price pressures, with the BoJ's trend gauge showing February core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above the 2% target—bolstered by yen depreciation to around 159 per USD and oil price surges from Iran conflict risks. Soft headline CPI at 1.3% has lifted no-change odds to 29%, tempering larger hikes below 1%, while upcoming wage data and JGB yield rises to multi-decade highs near 2.4% on the 10-year signal potential for policy normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated25 bps increase 69%
No change 29%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$221,622 Vol.
$221,622 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Decrease rates
1%
No change
29%
25 bps increase
69%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 69%
No change 29%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$221,622 Vol.
$221,622 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Decrease rates
$67,275 Vol.
1%
No change
$40,017 Vol.
29%
25 bps increase
$52,792 Vol.
69%
50+ bps increase
$61,538 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to a 25 basis points Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, reflecting hawkish forward guidance from the March 19 hold at 0.75% amid firm underlying inflation dynamics. Governor Ueda emphasized sustained price pressures, with the BoJ's trend gauge showing February core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above the 2% target—bolstered by yen depreciation to around 159 per USD and oil price surges from Iran conflict risks. Soft headline CPI at 1.3% has lifted no-change odds to 29%, tempering larger hikes below 1%, while upcoming wage data and JGB yield rises to multi-decade highs near 2.4% on the 10-year signal potential for policy normalization.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$221,622End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to a 25 basis points Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, reflecting hawkish forward guidance from the March 19 hold at 0.75% amid firm underlying inflation dynamics. Governor Ueda emphasized sustained price pressures, with the BoJ's trend gauge showing February core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above the 2% target—bolstered by yen depreciation to around 159 per USD and oil price surges from Iran conflict risks. Soft headline CPI at 1.3% has lifted no-change odds to 29%, tempering larger hikes below 1%, while upcoming wage data and JGB yield rises to multi-decade highs near 2.4% on the 10-year signal potential for policy normalization.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$221,622End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to a 25 basis points Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, reflecting hawkish forward guidance from the March 19 hold at 0.75% amid firm underlying inflation dynamics. Governor Ueda emphasized sustained price pressures, with the BoJ's trend gauge showing February core CPI excluding special factors at 2.2%—above the 2% target—bolstered by yen depreciation to around 159 per USD and oil price surges from Iran conflict risks. Soft headline CPI at 1.3% has lifted no-change odds to 29%, tempering larger hikes below 1%, while upcoming wage data and JGB yield rises to multi-decade highs near 2.4% on the 10-year signal potential for policy normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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