Polymarket traders price a 54% implied probability for no change at the Bank of Japan's June 13-14 meeting, driven by Governor Ueda's data-dependent stance amid uneven wage momentum and cooling Tokyo CPI to 2.2% YoY in May. Yen weakness near 157 per dollar has sparked intervention rumors—¥9.8 trillion sold since April—bolstering a 29.4% chance of a 25bps hike to 0.25-0.35%, while 14.5% eyes 50+bps on stronger national core CPI at 2.8% in April. Rate cuts at 6% reflect negligible demand amid above-target inflation, with trader consensus awaiting sustained 2% trend for action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo change 55%
25 bps increase 29.4%
50+ bps increase 15%
Decrease rates 6%
$12,454 Vol.
$12,454 Vol.
Decrease rates
6%
No change
55%
25 bps increase
29%
50+ bps increase
15%
No change 55%
25 bps increase 29.4%
50+ bps increase 15%
Decrease rates 6%
$12,454 Vol.
$12,454 Vol.
Decrease rates
6%
No change
55%
25 bps increase
29%
50+ bps increase
15%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 54% implied probability for no change at the Bank of Japan's June 13-14 meeting, driven by Governor Ueda's data-dependent stance amid uneven wage momentum and cooling Tokyo CPI to 2.2% YoY in May. Yen weakness near 157 per dollar has sparked intervention rumors—¥9.8 trillion sold since April—bolstering a 29.4% chance of a 25bps hike to 0.25-0.35%, while 14.5% eyes 50+bps on stronger national core CPI at 2.8% in April. Rate cuts at 6% reflect negligible demand amid above-target inflation, with trader consensus awaiting sustained 2% trend for action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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