Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the beef cow herd at a record low near 28.5 million head and the overall inventory at its smallest since 1951, continue to anchor elevated ground beef prices near $6.85–$6.90 per pound through mid-2026. Persistent effects of prior drought, high feed costs, and limited heifer retention have constrained fed and nonfed slaughter, pushing retail averages to multi-year highs despite rising imports and recent tariff relief measures aimed at increasing lean trimmings supply. USDA has repeatedly lowered its 2026 beef production forecast to around 24.9 billion pounds amid slower marketings, while consumer demand remains firm. Traders are monitoring heifer retention trends, packer capacity, and any further policy shifts for signs of supply relief before year-end.