Tight U.S. cattle supplies continue to anchor elevated ground beef prices, with the national herd at 86.2 million head in January 2026—its smallest since 1951—and beef cow inventories down further by mid-year. Persistent drought, elevated feed costs, and a 2% smaller 2026 calf crop have prompted USDA to repeatedly cut its beef production forecast, now at 24.877 billion pounds for the year, while live cattle prices remain near record levels. Retail ground beef averaged $6.92 per pound in August 2026, up 9.6% year-over-year but with inflation decelerating from earlier 20%+ peaks as the market settles into a high-price range. Consumer substitution toward ground beef and limited near-term herd expansion—typically a multi-year process—support the elevated baseline, though rising imports and any successful heifer retention could ease pressure by late 2026 or 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill ground beef hit __ in 2026?
$22,717 Vol.
$7.000+
85%
$8.000+
17%
$9.000+
29%
$10.000+
9%
$22,717 Vol.
$7.000+
85%
$8.000+
17%
$9.000+
29%
$10.000+
9%
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tight U.S. cattle supplies continue to anchor elevated ground beef prices, with the national herd at 86.2 million head in January 2026—its smallest since 1951—and beef cow inventories down further by mid-year. Persistent drought, elevated feed costs, and a 2% smaller 2026 calf crop have prompted USDA to repeatedly cut its beef production forecast, now at 24.877 billion pounds for the year, while live cattle prices remain near record levels. Retail ground beef averaged $6.92 per pound in August 2026, up 9.6% year-over-year but with inflation decelerating from earlier 20%+ peaks as the market settles into a high-price range. Consumer substitution toward ground beef and limited near-term herd expansion—typically a multi-year process—support the elevated baseline, though rising imports and any successful heifer retention could ease pressure by late 2026 or 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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