**Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at a multi-decade low of roughly 86.2 million head, remain the dominant driver of ground beef prices in 2026.** Record drought-driven herd liquidation and elevated feed costs have constrained domestic production, with USDA forecasts for 2026 beef output revised lower to around 24.9 billion pounds. Retail prices for 100% ground beef averaged $6.89–$7.16 per pound through August 2026 per BLS data, with monthly peaks exceeding $7.00 and year-over-year gains near 10%. Increased imports and recent tariff relief measures have added supply but produced only modest price moderation so far, as lean grinding beef remains the tightest segment. Herd rebuilding lags due to biological timelines, supporting elevated price levels through year-end absent major weather or demand shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill ground beef hit __ in 2026?
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
$22,717 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$7.000+
73%
$8.000+
17%
$9.000+
30%
$10.000+
9%
$22,717 Vol.
$7.000+
$129 Vol.
73%
$8.000+
$2,195 Vol.
17%
$9.000+
$788 Vol.
30%
$10.000+
$19,605 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at a multi-decade low of roughly 86.2 million head, remain the dominant driver of ground beef prices in 2026.** Record drought-driven herd liquidation and elevated feed costs have constrained domestic production, with USDA forecasts for 2026 beef output revised lower to around 24.9 billion pounds. Retail prices for 100% ground beef averaged $6.89–$7.16 per pound through August 2026 per BLS data, with monthly peaks exceeding $7.00 and year-over-year gains near 10%.
Increased imports and recent tariff relief measures have added supply but produced only modest price moderation so far, as lean grinding beef remains the tightest segment. Herd rebuilding lags due to biological timelines, supporting elevated price levels through year-end absent major weather or demand shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$22,717End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at a multi-decade low of roughly 86.2 million head, remain the dominant driver of ground beef prices in 2026.** Record drought-driven herd liquidation and elevated feed costs have constrained domestic production, with USDA forecasts for 2026 beef output revised lower to around 24.9 billion pounds. Retail prices for 100% ground beef averaged $6.89–$7.16 per pound through August 2026 per BLS data, with monthly peaks exceeding $7.00 and year-over-year gains near 10%.
Increased imports and recent tariff relief measures have added supply but produced only modest price moderation so far, as lean grinding beef remains the tightest segment. Herd rebuilding lags due to biological timelines, supporting elevated price levels through year-end absent major weather or demand shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$22,717End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at a multi-decade low of roughly 86.2 million head, remain the dominant driver of ground beef prices in 2026.** Record drought-driven herd liquidation and elevated feed costs have constrained domestic production, with USDA forecasts for 2026 beef output revised lower to around 24.9 billion pounds. Retail prices for 100% ground beef averaged $6.89–$7.16 per pound through August 2026 per BLS data, with monthly peaks exceeding $7.00 and year-over-year gains near 10%. Increased imports and recent tariff relief measures have added supply but produced only modest price moderation so far, as lean grinding beef remains the tightest segment. Herd rebuilding lags due to biological timelines, supporting elevated price levels through year-end absent major weather or demand shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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