The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% at its September 2026 meeting, with the effective rate holding near 3.88% in early October. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections showed a hawkish shift, lifting the median year-end 2026 and 2027 rate to 4.1% amid upward revisions to PCE inflation (3.7% for 2026) and GDP growth (2.3%), with unemployment projected to stabilize near 4.1%. August CPI stood at 3.4% year-over-year, and core measures remain above the 2% target. Markets are watching the October 14 CPI release, labor data, and the October 28 FOMC meeting for signals on whether additional tightening materializes before year-end, against a backdrop of resilient growth and sticky price pressures.