Trader consensus favoring a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC reflects hotter-than-expected August CPI and core readings alongside robust August payrolls growth of 162,000 jobs, which exceeded forecasts and kept the unemployment rate at 4.1%. These data points have reinforced concerns that inflation remains sticky above the 2% target amid Middle East-related energy price pressures, shifting market-implied odds toward additional tightening after an anticipated September hike. Recent hawkish communications from Fed officials have further supported this positioning versus official guidance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC outcome, October CPI release, and subsequent labor market reports that could alter the December path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$745,266 Wol.
$745,266 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
57%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$745,266 Wol.
$745,266 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$117,091 Wol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$166,784 Wol.
3%
No change
$147,627 Wol.
40%
25 bps increase
$198,802 Wol.
57%
50+ bps increase
$114,962 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus favoring a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC reflects hotter-than-expected August CPI and core readings alongside robust August payrolls growth of 162,000 jobs, which exceeded forecasts and kept the unemployment rate at 4.1%. These data points have reinforced concerns that inflation remains sticky above the 2% target amid Middle East-related energy price pressures, shifting market-implied odds toward additional tightening after an anticipated September hike. Recent hawkish communications from Fed officials have further supported this positioning versus official guidance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC outcome, October CPI release, and subsequent labor market reports that could alter the December path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$745,266Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus favoring a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC reflects hotter-than-expected August CPI and core readings alongside robust August payrolls growth of 162,000 jobs, which exceeded forecasts and kept the unemployment rate at 4.1%. These data points have reinforced concerns that inflation remains sticky above the 2% target amid Middle East-related energy price pressures, shifting market-implied odds toward additional tightening after an anticipated September hike. Recent hawkish communications from Fed officials have further supported this positioning versus official guidance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC outcome, October CPI release, and subsequent labor market reports that could alter the December path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$745,266Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favoring a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC reflects hotter-than-expected August CPI and core readings alongside robust August payrolls growth of 162,000 jobs, which exceeded forecasts and kept the unemployment rate at 4.1%. These data points have reinforced concerns that inflation remains sticky above the 2% target amid Middle East-related energy price pressures, shifting market-implied odds toward additional tightening after an anticipated September hike. Recent hawkish communications from Fed officials have further supported this positioning versus official guidance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC outcome, October CPI release, and subsequent labor market reports that could alter the December path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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