Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, reinforced by energy price shocks and supply-side pressures, alongside a resilient labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at +162,000 and unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, is driving the 60.5 percent implied probability of no change and 24.5 percent odds of a 25 basis point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections signal a higher terminal rate path near 3.8 percent by year-end 2026, with policymakers prioritizing price stability amid solid GDP growth and limited urgency for easing. Futures markets reflect gradual tightening expectations, while the September 15–16 policy decision and upcoming CPI data releases will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in January?
Fed Decision in January?
No change 61%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,658 Wol.
$62,658 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
25%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,658 Wol.
$62,658 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,099 Wol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$12,063 Wol.
14%
No change
$19,112 Wol.
61%
25 bps increase
$15,867 Wol.
25%
50+ bps increase
$2,515 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, reinforced by energy price shocks and supply-side pressures, alongside a resilient labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at +162,000 and unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, is driving the 60.5 percent implied probability of no change and 24.5 percent odds of a 25 basis point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections signal a higher terminal rate path near 3.8 percent by year-end 2026, with policymakers prioritizing price stability amid solid GDP growth and limited urgency for easing. Futures markets reflect gradual tightening expectations, while the September 15–16 policy decision and upcoming CPI data releases will likely refine these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$62,658Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, reinforced by energy price shocks and supply-side pressures, alongside a resilient labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at +162,000 and unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, is driving the 60.5 percent implied probability of no change and 24.5 percent odds of a 25 basis point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections signal a higher terminal rate path near 3.8 percent by year-end 2026, with policymakers prioritizing price stability amid solid GDP growth and limited urgency for easing. Futures markets reflect gradual tightening expectations, while the September 15–16 policy decision and upcoming CPI data releases will likely refine these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$62,658Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, reinforced by energy price shocks and supply-side pressures, alongside a resilient labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at +162,000 and unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, is driving the 60.5 percent implied probability of no change and 24.5 percent odds of a 25 basis point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections signal a higher terminal rate path near 3.8 percent by year-end 2026, with policymakers prioritizing price stability amid solid GDP growth and limited urgency for easing. Futures markets reflect gradual tightening expectations, while the September 15–16 policy decision and upcoming CPI data releases will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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