Recent forecasts for 2026 global GDP growth cluster around 2.5–3.2 percent, reflecting the closely matched Polymarket odds favoring 3.0–3.1 percent outcomes. The primary driver remains the Middle East energy shock, which has lifted Brent crude above $100 per barrel and added inflationary pressure, prompting downward revisions from the World Bank to 2.5 percent and UNCTAD to 2.6 percent. Offsetting factors include resilient AI-related investment and consumer spending in the United States, supporting higher estimates near 3.2 percent from the Peterson Institute. Key swing variables ahead include the duration of energy price spikes, FOMC rate decisions, and trade fragmentation risks, with trader consensus pricing in moderate growth amid elevated uncertainty.