Polymarket traders assign a 43% implied probability to the first Federal Reserve rate cut occurring at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, with lower odds for earlier action amid persistent inflation pressures and a cooling but stable labor market. The Fed held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% after its April 28-29 policy meeting—Chair Powell's final one before his term ends May 15—citing balanced risks. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 on May 8, down from March's 185,000 but exceeding forecasts, with hourly earnings up 0.2%. CME FedWatch Tool implies over 94% odds of no June 16-17 change. April CPI data due May 12 could shift rate path expectations if disinflation accelerates.