Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases, elevating short-term eurozone inflation expectations and prompting the ECB to signal a likely 25 basis point deposit rate hike at its June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. April data showed rising shorter-horizon expectations while longer-term measures remained anchored, with the Governing Council debating tightening to limit second-round effects amid a resilient labor market. Economist surveys assign roughly 85% probability to the move, aligning with market-implied odds that price in this adjustment to address upside inflation risks. Softer-than-expected inflation releases or a swift decline in energy costs could still reduce the need for immediate action before the decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 98.0%
No change 1.8%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$699,774 Vol.
$699,774 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
2%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
98%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 98.0%
No change 1.8%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$699,774 Vol.
$699,774 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
$104,106 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$116,083 Vol.
<1%
No change
$158,583 Vol.
2%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$163,510 Vol.
98%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$157,492 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases, elevating short-term eurozone inflation expectations and prompting the ECB to signal a likely 25 basis point deposit rate hike at its June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. April data showed rising shorter-horizon expectations while longer-term measures remained anchored, with the Governing Council debating tightening to limit second-round effects amid a resilient labor market. Economist surveys assign roughly 85% probability to the move, aligning with market-implied odds that price in this adjustment to address upside inflation risks. Softer-than-expected inflation releases or a swift decline in energy costs could still reduce the need for immediate action before the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$699,774終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases, elevating short-term eurozone inflation expectations and prompting the ECB to signal a likely 25 basis point deposit rate hike at its June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. April data showed rising shorter-horizon expectations while longer-term measures remained anchored, with the Governing Council debating tightening to limit second-round effects amid a resilient labor market. Economist surveys assign roughly 85% probability to the move, aligning with market-implied odds that price in this adjustment to address upside inflation risks. Softer-than-expected inflation releases or a swift decline in energy costs could still reduce the need for immediate action before the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
音量
$699,774終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases, elevating short-term eurozone inflation expectations and prompting the ECB to signal a likely 25 basis point deposit rate hike at its June 11 meeting from the current 2.00% level. April data showed rising shorter-horizon expectations while longer-term measures remained anchored, with the Governing Council debating tightening to limit second-round effects amid a resilient labor market. Economist surveys assign roughly 85% probability to the move, aligning with market-implied odds that price in this adjustment to address upside inflation risks. Softer-than-expected inflation releases or a swift decline in energy costs could still reduce the need for immediate action before the decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問