Eurozone inflation's surge to 2.5% in March 2026—up from 1.9% in February—has propelled trader consensus on Polymarket toward a 63.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June meeting, reflecting the European Central Bank's upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% amid persistent energy shocks. ECB President Lagarde's March 19 decision held rates steady at 2% but signaled readiness to tighten if price pressures prove durable, while banks like Goldman Sachs now pencil in June hikes. No-change odds at 28.5% capture lingering hopes for transience, with cuts below 1% given sticky inflation above target. Traders eye the April 30 policy meeting for pivotal signals ahead of June 10-11.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 66%
No change 27%
50+ bps increase 7.8%
25 bps decrease <1%
$11,497 Vol.
$11,497 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
27%
25 bps Increase
66%
50+ bps increase
8%
25 bps Increase 66%
No change 27%
50+ bps increase 7.8%
25 bps decrease <1%
$11,497 Vol.
$11,497 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,061 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,793 Vol.
1%
No change
$2,280 Vol.
27%
25 bps Increase
$2,810 Vol.
66%
50+ bps increase
$2,553 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Eurozone inflation's surge to 2.5% in March 2026—up from 1.9% in February—has propelled trader consensus on Polymarket toward a 63.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June meeting, reflecting the European Central Bank's upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% amid persistent energy shocks. ECB President Lagarde's March 19 decision held rates steady at 2% but signaled readiness to tighten if price pressures prove durable, while banks like Goldman Sachs now pencil in June hikes. No-change odds at 28.5% capture lingering hopes for transience, with cuts below 1% given sticky inflation above target. Traders eye the April 30 policy meeting for pivotal signals ahead of June 10-11.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$11,497End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Eurozone inflation's surge to 2.5% in March 2026—up from 1.9% in February—has propelled trader consensus on Polymarket toward a 63.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June meeting, reflecting the European Central Bank's upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% amid persistent energy shocks. ECB President Lagarde's March 19 decision held rates steady at 2% but signaled readiness to tighten if price pressures prove durable, while banks like Goldman Sachs now pencil in June hikes. No-change odds at 28.5% capture lingering hopes for transience, with cuts below 1% given sticky inflation above target. Traders eye the April 30 policy meeting for pivotal signals ahead of June 10-11.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$11,497End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eurozone inflation's surge to 2.5% in March 2026—up from 1.9% in February—has propelled trader consensus on Polymarket toward a 63.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June meeting, reflecting the European Central Bank's upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% amid persistent energy shocks. ECB President Lagarde's March 19 decision held rates steady at 2% but signaled readiness to tighten if price pressures prove durable, while banks like Goldman Sachs now pencil in June hikes. No-change odds at 28.5% capture lingering hopes for transience, with cuts below 1% given sticky inflation above target. Traders eye the April 30 policy meeting for pivotal signals ahead of June 10-11.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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