The market-implied 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will not be abolished before 2027 reflects the absence of viable legislative momentum, with the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R. 1846/S. 869) stalled in committee since its 2025 introduction and no subsequent proposals advancing. The Fed’s statutory foundation under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, combined with its central role in setting the federal funds rate, managing inflation data, and responding to labor market conditions, underpins broad institutional consensus across Congress and the executive branch. Recent FOMC communications and ongoing supervisory activities, including proposed 2026 stress-test scenarios, reinforce operational continuity rather than structural change. Tail-risk scenarios, such as an acute financial crisis or unprecedented political realignment capable of overriding decades of precedent, remain low-probability events priced into current odds given the multi-step bicameral requirements for repeal.