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icon for Fed abolished before 2027?
Economy·Trump

Fed abolished before 2027?

icon for Fed abolished before 2027?
Economy·Trump

Fed abolished before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 91.3% implied probability to "No" on Federal Reserve abolition before 2027, driven by the institution's century-long entrenchment via the 1913 Federal Reserve Act and lack of any advancing congressional bills or hearings despite fringe calls from fiscal hawks. Recent developments, including President Trump's criticism of Chair Powell and speculation around Kevin Warsh as successor advocating balance sheet shrinkage rather than elimination, underscore policy tweaks over structural overhaul. Bipartisan reliance on Fed independence for monetary stability—amid 3.3% March CPI and steady Fed funds rate—bolsters this positioning. Challenges could arise from post-2026 midterm radicalism or unforeseen crisis, though legislative gridlock and economic risks sustain high conviction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$4,035
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 91.3% implied probability to "No" on Federal Reserve abolition before 2027, driven by the institution's century-long entrenchment via the 1913 Federal Reserve Act and lack of any advancing congressional bills or hearings despite fringe calls from fiscal hawks. Recent developments, including President Trump's criticism of Chair Powell and speculation around Kevin Warsh as successor advocating balance sheet shrinkage rather than elimination, underscore policy tweaks over structural overhaul. Bipartisan reliance on Fed independence for monetary stability—amid 3.3% March CPI and steady Fed funds rate—bolsters this positioning. Challenges could arise from post-2026 midterm radicalism or unforeseen crisis, though legislative gridlock and economic risks sustain high conviction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$4,035
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed abolished before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 6% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 6¢, the market collectively assigns a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Fed abolished before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Fed abolished before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Fed abolished before 2027?" is 6% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Fed abolished before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.