Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Jerome PowellPolitics

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

94%

Kevin Warsh

$465m Vol.

$6m today

$66m Liq.

1,535

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in March?
Jerome PowellPolitics

Fed decision in March?

93%

No change

$98m Vol.

$3m today

$5m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Jerome PowellBusiness

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

26%

2 (50 bps)

$6m Vol.

$248k today

$828k Liq.

32

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in April?
Jerome PowellPolitics

Fed decision in April?

79%

No change

$2m Vol.

$80.4k today

$404k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?
Jerome PowellPolitics

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?

22%

$50.7k Vol.

$7.1k Liq.

Fed Decision in June?
Jerome PowellPolitics

Fed Decision in June?

48%

25 bps decrease

$269k Vol.

$285k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
Jerome PowellPolitics

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

8%

May 14

$991k Vol.

$96.0k Liq.

31

Ends in 3 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Jerome PowellPolitics

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

28%

3.25%

$180k Vol.

$205k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Jerome PowellPolitics

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

91%

↓ 3.25%

$596k Vol.

$207k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?
Jerome PowellPolitics

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?

3%

$55.3k Vol.

$17.5k Liq.

1

Ends in 15 days

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___  by Feb 20?
Jerome PowellPolitics

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by Feb 20?

31%

>5%

$4.2k Vol.

$10.6k Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Fed rate cut by...?
Jerome PowellFinance

Fed rate cut by...?

75%

June Meeting

$800k Vol.

$82.7k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
Jerome PowellPolitics

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

4%

$193k Vol.

$17.6k Liq.

31

Ends in 5 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
Jerome PowellPolitics

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

78%

December 31

$84.6k Vol.

$12.6k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?
Jerome PowellTrump

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

17%

$79.6k Vol.

$4.4k Liq.

3

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)
Jerome PowellFed

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

36%

Pause–Pause–Cut

$9.6k Vol.

$127k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Fed rate hike in 2026?
Jerome PowellFed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

14%

$36.7k Vol.

$10.5k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
Jerome PowellPolitics

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

96%

$8.4k Vol.

$7.2k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Jerome PowellFinance

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

77%

4.4%

$72.1k Vol.

$18.4k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
Jerome PowellFinance

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

22%

4.4%

$88.5k Vol.

$32.2k Liq.

7

Ends in about 2 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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