Skip to main content
icon for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

icon for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 45%

1 (25 bps) 32%

2 (50 bps) 12%

3 (75 bps) 3.5%

Polymarket

$136,092 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 45%

1 (25 bps) 32%

2 (50 bps) 12%

3 (75 bps) 3.5%

Polymarket

$136,092 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$59,244 Vol.

45%

1 (25 bps)

$19,531 Vol.

32%

2 (50 bps)

$32,536 Vol.

12%

3 (75 bps)

$13,135 Vol.

3%

4 (100 bps)

$5,403 Vol.

1%

5+ (125+ bps)

$6,243 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target and recent energy price pressures have shifted market-implied odds toward zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, with the 45% probability on no hikes reflecting expectations that the current 3.5-3.75% federal funds range will hold amid moderating June CPI data. New Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability and the median FOMC dot plot signaling one possible increase have tempered earlier cut expectations, while labor market resilience and upcoming September data releases keep one hike as a close second at 32%. Geopolitical risks around oil supply add volatility to the rate path priced by traders.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$136,092
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target and recent energy price pressures have shifted market-implied odds toward zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, with the 45% probability on no hikes reflecting expectations that the current 3.5-3.75% federal funds range will hold amid moderating June CPI data. New Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability and the median FOMC dot plot signaling one possible increase have tempered earlier cut expectations, while labor market resilience and upcoming September data releases keep one hike as a close second at 32%. Geopolitical risks around oil supply add volatility to the rate path priced by traders.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$136,092
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Related

icon for Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

86%
icon for Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

55%
icon for Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

47%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0 (0 bps)" at 45%, followed by "1 (25 bps)" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" has generated $136.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" is "0 (0 bps)" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1 (25 bps)" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.