Maduro remains in US federal custody in New York following his January 2026 capture during a military operation, facing narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, weapons, and newly added torture conspiracy charges that could carry decades or life in prison if convicted at the June 2027 trial. Prosecutors have rejected immunity claims tied to his former head-of-state status, while defense motions continue and a bond hearing for his wife proceeds. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting uncertainty over plea negotiations, potential diplomatic arrangements with Venezuela’s interim authorities, or delays that could alter the case trajectory before resolution. Recent indictment updates have reinforced the seriousness of the charges without shifting the leading outcome.