The near-certain trader consensus that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor will not face a prison sentence reflects the absence of any criminal charges following his February 2026 arrest on suspicion of misconduct in public office tied to Jeffrey Epstein disclosures. Recent High Court proceedings quashed the related search warrants on procedural grounds, creating significant evidentiary hurdles for Thames Valley Police while the probe remains active but stalled without new developments. No trial timeline exists, historical patterns show rare prosecutions of senior royals reaching conviction, and structural barriers like evidence admissibility further reduce near-term risk. Traders price in these realities as low-probability paths to sentencing, though fresh charges or admissible evidence from the ongoing inquiry could still shift outcomes before any resolution.