U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein's March 26 ruling rejecting dismissal of narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—despite defense claims of unlawful arrest by U.S. forces and blocked Venezuelan funding for legal fees—has sustained pre-trial proceedings without a trial date set. Trader consensus reflects 67.5% implied probability against guilty verdicts on all counts, driven by ongoing immunity arguments as a former head of state, historical low conviction rates for narcoterrorism at trial (most resolve via pleas), potential fair trial challenges, and no disclosed evidence strength, underscoring uncertainty in securing unanimous jury convictions in the Southern District of New York.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$98,554 Vol.
$98,554 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
$98,554 Vol.
$98,554 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein's March 26 ruling rejecting dismissal of narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—despite defense claims of unlawful arrest by U.S. forces and blocked Venezuelan funding for legal fees—has sustained pre-trial proceedings without a trial date set. Trader consensus reflects 67.5% implied probability against guilty verdicts on all counts, driven by ongoing immunity arguments as a former head of state, historical low conviction rates for narcoterrorism at trial (most resolve via pleas), potential fair trial challenges, and no disclosed evidence strength, underscoring uncertainty in securing unanimous jury convictions in the Southern District of New York.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volume
$98,554End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein's March 26 ruling rejecting dismissal of narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—despite defense claims of unlawful arrest by U.S. forces and blocked Venezuelan funding for legal fees—has sustained pre-trial proceedings without a trial date set. Trader consensus reflects 67.5% implied probability against guilty verdicts on all counts, driven by ongoing immunity arguments as a former head of state, historical low conviction rates for narcoterrorism at trial (most resolve via pleas), potential fair trial challenges, and no disclosed evidence strength, underscoring uncertainty in securing unanimous jury convictions in the Southern District of New York.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$98,554End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein's March 26 ruling rejecting dismissal of narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—despite defense claims of unlawful arrest by U.S. forces and blocked Venezuelan funding for legal fees—has sustained pre-trial proceedings without a trial date set. Trader consensus reflects 67.5% implied probability against guilty verdicts on all counts, driven by ongoing immunity arguments as a former head of state, historical low conviction rates for narcoterrorism at trial (most resolve via pleas), potential fair trial challenges, and no disclosed evidence strength, underscoring uncertainty in securing unanimous jury convictions in the Southern District of New York.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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