Traders assign a 100% probability to no US-China tariff agreement by July 31, 2026, because no official mutual accord on tariffs was publicly announced by the deadline despite prior suspensions from the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement. Recent developments include the July 24 imposition of new Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods linked to forced labor investigations, alongside unchanged baseline rates and no bilateral breakthrough during ongoing trade talks. This aligns with the pattern of incremental adjustments rather than comprehensive new deals within the window. Even at near-certainty, late announcements of previously undisclosed pacts or reinterpretation of existing arrangements could theoretically shift resolution if they meet market criteria for an official agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$94,222 Vol.
$94,222 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1% chance
$94,222 Vol.
$94,222 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 100% probability to no US-China tariff agreement by July 31, 2026, because no official mutual accord on tariffs was publicly announced by the deadline despite prior suspensions from the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement. Recent developments include the July 24 imposition of new Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods linked to forced labor investigations, alongside unchanged baseline rates and no bilateral breakthrough during ongoing trade talks. This aligns with the pattern of incremental adjustments rather than comprehensive new deals within the window. Even at near-certainty, late announcements of previously undisclosed pacts or reinterpretation of existing arrangements could theoretically shift resolution if they meet market criteria for an official agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$94,222End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 100% probability to no US-China tariff agreement by July 31, 2026, because no official mutual accord on tariffs was publicly announced by the deadline despite prior suspensions from the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement. Recent developments include the July 24 imposition of new Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods linked to forced labor investigations, alongside unchanged baseline rates and no bilateral breakthrough during ongoing trade talks. This aligns with the pattern of incremental adjustments rather than comprehensive new deals within the window. Even at near-certainty, late announcements of previously undisclosed pacts or reinterpretation of existing arrangements could theoretically shift resolution if they meet market criteria for an official agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$94,222End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign a 100% probability to no US-China tariff agreement by July 31, 2026, because no official mutual accord on tariffs was publicly announced by the deadline despite prior suspensions from the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement. Recent developments include the July 24 imposition of new Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods linked to forced labor investigations, alongside unchanged baseline rates and no bilateral breakthrough during ongoing trade talks. This aligns with the pattern of incremental adjustments rather than comprehensive new deals within the window. Even at near-certainty, late announcements of previously undisclosed pacts or reinterpretation of existing arrangements could theoretically shift resolution if they meet market criteria for an official agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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